Browse Data and Analysis

Post raised the forecast for India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (October-September) to 35.5 million metric tons (MMT), due to adequate rainfall from the 2024 southwest monsoon.

With the outlook for the sugar industry largely unchanged from the previous report, no significant changes are made to the supply and demand tables.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Egypt’s sugar production in marketing year 2024/25 (October to September) is forecast to reach 2.6 million metric tons, down 110,000 tons from USDA official MY2023/24 production estimates on lower cane sugar production.

The Philippines issued Sugar Order No. 5 (SO5) announcing the importation of 240,000 metric tons (MT) of refined sugar, the first sugar import program for marketing year (MY) 2024-2025 which starts in September 2024 and ends in August 2025.

The Philippines is set to resume raw sugar exports to the United States under its sugar quota in August 2024. The Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) issued Sugar Order (SO) No. 3 on July 26, approving the export of 25,300 metric tons raw value (MTRV) of raw sugar in fulfillment of the United States tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocation for fiscal year 2024.

Ukraine established a self-limiting trade measure for sugar to create long term trust with its neighbor.

This biannual report, published in May and November, includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in sugar.

MY2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 1.8 MMT, similar to FAS/Kyiv's previous MY estimate. Sugar beet production area will remain steady across MY2023/24 and MY2024/25, which could be an indicator that the sugar industry is adjusting to a “new normal.”

Argentine sugar exports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are projected at 625,000 tons raw value, the largest in the past 15 years due to the combination of expected large production and large stocks of sugar passed in from the previous marketing year.

MY 2024/25 sugar production is expected to recover from a 20 percent slump in MY 2023/24. Sugar consumption growth will likely decelerate in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, following Thailand’s slow economic recovery and shrinking sugar demand by non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers due to the progressive sugar tax.