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The MY 2022/23 sugar production forecast is down 23 percent from the previous estimate. Producers face a shrinking domestic market and fluctuating world prices, as well as the strain of conflict with Russia in terms of ensuring production and exports.

On May 24, 2022, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry/Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued notification No. 10/2015-20, amending its sugar export policy. The notification specifies that exports of raw, refined, and white sugar fall under the “restricted” category.

Nigeria’s current 10-year Sugar Master Plan (NSMP) will end next year – likely moving on to another 10-year Phase Two Plan. The growth in sugar consumption is expected to be driven by the food processing sector.

Post forecasts that sugar cane production in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) will increase by 2 percent, to 5.3 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 MY, based on good rainfall, increased available irrigation water, normal weather conditions, expanded planted area and consistent cane yields.

Post forecasts that sugar cane production in Zimbabwe will increase by 4 percent to 3.7 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), based on normal weather conditions, availability of sufficient irrigation water, and an increase in area planted.

Argentine sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 is forecast at 1.71 million tons, raw value, practically unchanged from the previous year. La Niña weather conditions have limited sugarcane production over the last two years, and output was affected by a severe winter last year and a very dry and hot summer early this year.

MY 2021/22 estimates for production, trade, and consumption are all revised downward.

Mexico sugar production and exports are forecasted forecasted marginally higher for 2022/23.

Improving international prices have eased the financial pressure exerted by the COVID-19 pandemic on the sugar sector, but inflationary concerns have led the government to include sugar among the products with import duties reduced to zero percent for a one-year period.

Egypt maintains a steady production of sugarcane, however sugar beet production areas are expanding. FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts refined sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 to increase by approximately 2.5 percent, or 70,000 metric tons (MT), to reach 2.92 million metric tons (MMT).

Private sugar mill expansion and higher rainfall as a result of La Nina weather patterns are expected to increase sugarcane yields, leading to increased sugar production in 2022/23. Despite the expected increase in production, imports of raw sugar are also forecast to increase, mainly due to higher sugar demand from the growing food and beverage industry.

Sugar production in Venezuela for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 39% to 265,000 MT. The increase is primarily due to yield gains as a result of better access to quality inputs and a reduction in diesel shortages, as well as more favorable prices for producers.