Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Bangkok (Post) expects soybean imports to rebound in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 and further increase to around 4 million metric tons in MY2023/24, driven by strong demand for poultry and swine feed.

In MY 2021/22, the total value of Japan’s soybean imports reached a historical record while rapeseed crush hit the lowest point in 10 years as rapeseed imports from Canada declined.

Since the Netherlands lifted all COVID-19 related restrictions at the end of February 2022 and most people returned to the workplace, new opportunities continue to emerge for U.S. agricultural products. Consumers are especially interested in healthier, more convenient, nutritious, and high-quality products.

Taiwan’s soybean imports are forecast at 2.65 MMT for MY2022/2023 and MY2023/2024. In MY 2021/2022, Taiwan imports of soybeans reached a record high of $1.74 billion. To stabilize commodity prices and reduce inflationary pressure for consumers, since February 2022 Taiwan has waived business taxes on imported soybeans, currently set to expire on June 30, 2023.

FAS Manila forecasts copra production at 3 million MT for MY 2023/24 because of the coming El Niño and the break from the 3-year productive cycle. Soybean meal imports are projected to reach 2.9 million MT because of expected expansion in the broiler and aquaculture sectors.

Post projects marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 soybean production at 10 million metric tons (MMT) as planted area rises to 3.55 million hectares and Paraguay returns to trend for yield. MY 2023/2024 exports are projected at 6.4 MMT.

Vietnam’s economy has continued to rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic, while also being affected by global inflation and local price hikes for ingredients.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2022/2024 soybean production at 875,000 metric tons (MT), the lowest level in sixteen years due to a historic drought affecting Uruguay and neighboring Argentina. As a result, Post reduces MY 2022/23 exports to 850,000 MT.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post’s soybean import forecast is 2.4 million MT, on Bangladesh rebounding from its current economic slowdown, while local soybean production remains flat.

Modest growth in the animal protein sector is expected to raise China’s soybean imports to 97 million metric tons (MMT) in Marketing Year (MY) 23/24. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) removal of COVID-related restriction in December 2022 is expected to boost overall oilseed consumption.

Turkey’s production of major oilseeds – sunflowerseeds, cottonseeds, and soybeans – in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is projected to decrease year-over-year because of pre-earthquake market dynamics.

The Korea oilseeds and products market is mature with limited annual change, reflecting stable consumer demand and stagnant domestic production.