India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2019/20 (Oct-Sept) is expected to decline 8.4 percent to 30.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to lower than expected sugarcane production and net reduction in national sugar recovery rate, which was at a record high this season (MY 2018/19). Despite the trend, for the third time in the last four years Uttar Pradesh will again be the largest producer of sugar in India; this will partially compensate for lower output from Maharashtra and Karnataka. Overall, sugarcane production will be down 8 percent to 355 MMT from 4.7 million hectares (MH). Assuming normal market conditions, India should be able to export upwards of 3.5 MMT of sugar but with some incentives after adjusting for a modest rise in sugar consumption to 28.5 MT. That will still leave stocks of a record 17 MMT, which is roughly 7 months of consumption.