India: Grain and Feed Update

On June 4, 2024, the Indian government released the third advance estimate for Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June) estimating grain production at 328.85 million metric tons (MMT), marginally below last year level. Based on the latest official estimate, MY 2024/2025 wheat production is estimated at a record of 113 MMT. On June 24, 2024, the Government of India imposed stock limits on wheat for retailers, traders, and processors effective till March 31, 2025. MY 2024/2025 wheat ending stocks are revised lower to 7.5 MMT on lower-than-expected government wheat procurement. Post’s MY 2023/2024 corn production estimate is revised lower to 35.7 MMT; imports estimated higher at 500,000 MT based on the improved import prospects on strong domestic prices leading to government allowing imports of 0.5 MMT corn at lower duty under tariff rate quota (TRQ). MY 2024/2025 forecast imports has been raised to 300,000 MT on expected spillover of the TRQ imports.