India: Grain and Feed Update

The 2021 monsoon kicked off with some force in June, reaching four-fifths of the Indian subcontinent. Monsoon winds stalled on June 19 in the northern Indian plains, slowing the kharif crops' plantings. As forecasts predicted, the monsoon resumed in the second week of July. Following historical patterns, the progress of monsoon during the second and third week of July is critical for rainfed coarse grains, pulses, and oilseeds, that go largely unirrigated. Back-to-back record harvests and government procurement of rice and wheat resulted in the ballooning of government grain stocks to a record high of 109 million metric tons (MMT) in June 2021. The government is offloading stocks in the domestic market in the form of COVID-19 relief programs and sales at subsidized prices. FAS New Delhi (Post) is raising the market year (MY) 2020/2021 rice export estimate to 19 MMT due to Indian rice’s competitive export prices. Post’s MY 2020/2021 corn export estimate is raised to 2.8 MMT based on India’s official estimates.