In Post’s 2016 annual and 2017 semi-annual poultry reports, Post forecast that poultry production would decrease significantly in 2017 due to avian-influenza related factors. While production has decreased, it was not the sharp decrease Post had anticipated. This is for two reasons: first, China’s foray into building its domestic poultry genetics industry has been successful so far, and two, China has continued to use induced molting to increase the productive life of its laying flocks. In CY 2018, Post forecasts that broiler production will continue to decline down to 11 million metric tons (MMT). In addition, Post forecasts consumer demand will also decline, roughly keeping pace with the drop in production, resulting in only a slight increase to imports at 500,000 metric tons, with Brazil continuing to account for the lion’s share.
China: Poultry and Products Annual