China: Livestock Sector Woes Drive Down Soybean Import Forecast in MY19/20

Based on trends in the swine sector, the MY2019/20 soybean import forecast for China is reduced to 80 million metric tons (MMT). This reduction in import forecast will translate into a lower soybean crush, and soy oil and soybean meal use in 2019/20. The reduced soybean oil production in China will be offset by increases in other oil imports. Encouraged by the Chinese Government’s subsidy policy favoring soybean production, farmers have increased planted area, and the forecast MY19/20 soybean production is increased to 17.1 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from MY18/19. Post also reduces its MY18/19 soybean import estimate to 82 MMT on shipment data marketing-year-to-date and future export prospects. Despite the reduced import demand in MYs 18/19 and 19/20 and the continued incentives to cultivate more soybeans in China, imports remain essential to meeting vegetable oil and protein meal demand. 

China: Livestock Sector Woes Drive Down Soybean Import Forecast in MY19/20