China: Cotton and Products Update
Post’s MY14/15 forecast for cotton production remains unchanged from the previous 6.5 million tons. According to several leading industry sources, a change in the government’s support policy may have reduced the cotton planting area in cotton-producing provinces (except Xinjiang). However, as of this publication, the current available data is insufficient to support an adjustment to Post’s recent forecast. As of late MY13/14, government cotton purchases over the past three years have built domestic stocks to a record high of 13.4 million tons. The government’s plan to reduce high stocks, coupled with a slight recovery in consumption to 8.1 million tons, will reduce cotton imports to about 1.7 million tons in MY14/15. U.S. cotton exports to China will fall further in MY14/15 from the 638,000 tons level in MY13/14.
