Wheat 2019 Export Highlights

Top 10 Export Markets for U.S. Wheat

(values in million USD)
Country 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % Change
2018-2019
5-Year Average
2015-2019
Mexico  651   612   852   662   812  23%  718 
Philippines  516   592   555   643   700  9%  601 
Japan  747   604   714   717   608  -15%  678 
Nigeria  524   265   372   193   472  144%  365 
Taiwan  283   257   295   267   324  21%  285 
South Korea  309   248   329   363   296  -18%  309 
Indonesia  105   192   298   177   283  60%  211 
European Union  287   165   154   210   200  -5%  203 
Egypt  101   20   34   25   185  656%  73 
Yemen  96   92   84   103   168  64%  108 
All Others  2,008   2,299   2,373   2,030   2,164  7%  2,175 
Total Exported  5,628   5,346   6,058   5,389   6,214  15%  5,727 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data - BICO HS-10

Highlights

In 2019, the value of U.S. wheat exports to the world reached $6.2 billion, up 15 percent from the prior year as a result of reduced competition from Australia, Canada, and Russia. The top three markets, accounting for 34 percent of exports, were Mexico, Philippines, and Japan at $812 million, $700 million, and $608 million, respectively. U.S. wheat exports continue to be spread out across a wide variety of markets. Due to China’s retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent imposed on U.S. wheat, exports to China were down 84 percent from 2017 values.  On the positive side, exports to Nigeria recovered from 2018 and exports to Egypt increased by more than 600 percent.

Drivers

  • Nigeria and Egypt were the largest growth markets for U.S. wheat in 2019. Nigeria imported $472 million of U.S. wheat, up 144 percent from the previous year. Egypt imported $185 million worth, up from just $24 million in 2018. U.S. wheat benefitted from a period of price competitiveness early in 2019 that allowed for a resurgence in exports to price-sensitive markets.
  • Tighter supplies in Australia, Russia, and Canada allowed U.S. wheat to gain global market share.
  • Major challenges for U.S. wheat exporters include proper implementation of tariff rate quotas in Brazil and China and domestic support for wheat in China and India.

Global Wheat Exports

Graphic showing global wheat exports from 2015 - 2019
Looking Ahead

Global trade in wheat is expected to grow in years to come, but the United States will need to maintain its place among major competitors like Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. The United States is likely to continue as a major supplier of wheat to much of Latin America and East/Southeast Asia. U.S. competitiveness in core markets during 2020 is likely to remain strong based on relatively tight supplies from key competitors Australia and Canada.  Mexico is likely to remain a strong U.S. market, despite continued competition from Russia. Outside of core markets, U.S. wheat will likely struggle as both EU and Russia continue to have abundant supplies. Considering this intense competition, exports to Africa and the Middle East are likely to be inconsistent. U.S. wheat is not competitive in China with retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent. However, exports to China could be sizable, particularly if China administers its 9.6 million-ton TRQ in compliance with its WTO obligations.  The signing of the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement is expected to help the United States maintain its competitiveness in this key market and prevent loss of market share to Australia and Canada. Brazil recently opened a global TRQ of 750,000 tons which could offer a chance for expanded U.S. exports. The COVID- 19 pandemic may affect the global demand for wheat and flour as global spending slows, people stay home and eat out less.

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