Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY 2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import policies.

Post revised its Marketing Year 2021/2022 (MY21/22) estimates of the Cambodia rice harvested area and production at 3,335 thousand hectares (THA) and 9.61 million metric tons (MMT), higher than the USDA official numbers.

MY2022/23 wheat production is forecast flat at 6,000 MT, unchanged from the previous two MYs. Australia recovered its market share thanks to drought recovery but the United States remains the chief supplier with 66 percent market share.

Post forecasts that consumption of corn and wheat in Malaysia will marginally increase in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23, assuming an eventual stabilization of commodity prices following the disruption caused by the crisis in Ukraine.

Post forecasts overall feed demand to decline by 2 percent in MY2022/23 as prices rise and additional contraction of the swine industry is anticipated. Corn for feed consumption in MY2022/23 is forecast up 2.8 percent, or 6 million metric tons (MMT). MY2022/23 corn, wheat, and rice production are all forecast down due to the push to increase oilseed production and weather conditions in major wheat growing areas.

FAS/Seoul projects Korea’s corn imports and consumption to increase in 2022/23 to support anticipated growth in animal inventories, following an expected decrease in corn imports in 2021/22 due to the war in Ukraine. Korean wheat consumption in 2022/23 is forecast to decline 15 percent due to reduced feed wheat supply.

High global commodity prices are expected to slow the growth of 2021/22 Indonesian wheat imports and lower the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY)2022/23 rice and corn production 2 percent higher than MY2021/22 figures, benefiting from sufficient water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices.

FAS Manila forecasts Market Year (MY) 2022/23 milled rice production will reach 12.4 million metric tons (MT), flat with the previous year’s near-record high. The Philippine government’s support programs will help rice farmers partially offset rising input costs.

Post forecasts a 31-percent increase in Thai rice exports and a 17-percent decline in corn imports.

China’s overall feed production is projected to rise through the end of calendar year 2022.

Post increases the MY 21/22 estimate for milled rice production to 12.5 million MT on positive first-quarter production data while holding imports unchanged.