For MY2022/23, initially good crop prospects after the abundant rains in April were negated by above average temperatures registered in May and June. In-country grain demand remains relatively stable, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector, despite the somewhat lower livestock products exports and the grain prices hike.
After more than 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, wheat prices have surged almost 60 percent globally, hitting their highest levels in 14 years. Egypt, similar to the rest of the world, has been affected by the impacts of this war, especially since 82 percent of its wheat imports over the last five years originated in Russia and Ukraine.
On June 15, Kazakhstan extended wheat and wheat flour export restrictions until September 30. The restrictions were originally approved on April 14 under the Ministry of Agriculture's decree “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” and set to expire on June 15, 2022.
On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.
FAS New Delhi (Post) is lowering its India market year (MY) 2022/2023 (April-March) wheat production forecast to 99 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the pre-harvest forecast of 110 MMT. The MY 2022/2023 wheat exports forecast is lowered to 6 MMT and ending stocks to 8.5 MMT due to tightening supplies.
On May 19, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved two genetically engineered (GE) crops (1 soybean and 1 corn/maize) for food and animal feed. The two authorizations were published in the European Union’s Official Journal on May 20, 2022, and they remain valid for 10 years.
In 2021, Chinese imports of alfalfa pellets hit record levels of 52,254 metric tons (MT) and $13.66 million by value, increases of 62 percent and 70 percent respectively. The market is dominated by Spanish-origin pellets.
Heat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact India’s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India’s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT.
While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.
On April 14, the Ministry of Agriculture approved the “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” decree outlining wheat and wheat flour export restrictions valid until June 15, 2022.