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FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

On September 13, Kazakhstan announced the end of wheat and wheat flour export restrictions that had been in effect since April 14, 2022. Since the restrictions went into effect, Kazakhstani exporters utilized 83 percent of the wheat and 66 percent of...

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Producers in Kazakhstan's three main wheat producing regions reported no adverse weather events and precipitation has been generally more than last year, especially through June, although July precipitation in some areas has come in slightly lower.

After more than 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, wheat prices have surged almost 60 percent globally, hitting their highest levels in 14 years. Egypt, similar to the rest of the world, has been affected by the impacts of this war, especially since 82 percent of its wheat imports over the last five years originated in Russia and Ukraine.

On June 15, Kazakhstan extended wheat and wheat flour export restrictions until September 30. The restrictions were originally approved on April 14 under the Ministry of Agriculture's decree “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” and set to expire on June 15, 2022.

Serbia is closely following the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, especially because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

On April 14, the Ministry of Agriculture approved the “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” decree outlining wheat and wheat flour export restrictions valid until June 15, 2022.

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Kazakhstan introduced wheat and wheat flour exports restrictions until June 15, 2022, however the government has made public assurances that it plans to supply regional markets given high wheat prices and production challenges in Ukraine and Russia.

This report contains FAS-Nur-Sultan’s production estimates for MY2021/22 and trade estimates for MY2022/23.