Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

In 2021, Nigeria is expected to face decreases in grain supplies due to conflict and economic factors exacerbated by the secondary effects of COVID-19. Internal security across the country is a serious challenge to food production especially in the corn belt.

MY 2021/22 corn and rice production remain flat at 4 million MT and 80,000 MT (for milled rice), respectively.

South Africa should remain a net exporter of corn in the 2021/22 MY on excess supplies.

Nigeria will rely on imports to meet its national requirements for grains (especially, wheat, corn, rice) in MY2020/21.

Due to an expected sharp increase in local wheat production on favorable weather conditions and record yields, South Africa’s imports of wheat and wheaten products in the 2020/21 MY is expected to...

South Africa’s local wheat price increased sharply to record high levels in April 2020.