Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.

South Africa’s grain production is off to a decent start in marketing year 2022/23. Above-average rains over most parts of the summer rainfall production area during November and December enhanced crop plantings and provided conducive growing conditions.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

The sharp upsurge in the cost of farming inputs for corn farmers in South Africa intensified the risk of production in a weather dependent industry, despite record-high commodity prices. As a result, Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. However, South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn under normal weather conditions.

On June 10, 2022, the Government of Kenya issued additional tariff exemptions for new feed ingredients to address rising feed costs. Duty exemptions were granted for genetically engineered Bt. cottonseed cake, distillers’ dried grains with solubles...

Angola’s wheat milling capacity has increased to achieve self-sufficiency with five wheat mills now operating in the country, with milling capacity of up to 1 million metric tons of wheat per year.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

South Africa had an excellent start to the 2021/22 MY, with carry-over soil moisture and widespread rains that led corn producers to start plantings two to four weeks earlier than usual. Excessive rainfall during December to early January caused damage to planted crops in some areas that could impact crop size, although the extent will only become clear over the next few months.

On December 10, 2021, the Government of Kenya announced it would grant exemptions to tariffs on non-genetically-modified (GM) feed ingredients in response to rising feed costs.