Browse Data and Analysis

FAS and the Economic Research Service jointly publish the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. The agricultural export forecast is updated February, May, August, and November.

Angola’s wheat milling capacity has increased to achieve self-sufficiency with five wheat mills now operating in the country, with milling capacity of up to 1 million metric tons of wheat per year.

Forecasts of below average rainfall and extended dry spells in most parts of the country by the Ghana Meteorological Agency, looming shortage and soaring global prices of fertilizer, and a further cutback on fertilizer subsidy rate are set to erode the grain production gains of GOG’s Planting for Food and Jobs program.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

South Africa had an excellent start to the 2021/22 MY, with carry-over soil moisture and widespread rains that led corn producers to start plantings two to four weeks earlier than usual. Excessive rainfall during December to early January caused damage to planted crops in some areas that could impact crop size, although the extent will only become clear over the next few months.

On December 10, 2021, the Government of Kenya announced it would grant exemptions to tariffs on non-genetically-modified (GM) feed ingredients in response to rising feed costs.

After last season’s second consecutive bumper corn crop, the positive outlook for the South African grain industry will continue in the 2021/22 MY as evidenced by a 30 percent upsurge in tractor sales and the intention of commercial producers to maintain a corn area of 2.7 million hectares.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

South Africa should remain a net exporter of corn in the 2021/22 marketing year (MY) on excess supplies.

Post estimates that the decreasing trend in sorghum production will continue in the 2021/22 MY, although sorghum production increased to a 7-year high in the 2020/21 MY due to favorable weather conditions