Browse Data and Analysis

Due to continued elevated agricultural input costs, Mexico’s corn production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 27.4 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the year prior. Lower than expected planting intentions data accounts for slightly lower rice and wheat production forecasts.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombia's corn and rice production are forecast to marginally increase driven by higher domestic prices and expected normalized weather conditions. However, high production costs continue to be a challenge for Colombian producers.

In 2022, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat as well as began subsidizing the price of fertilizers for small producers.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.

Brazil is set for another record-breaking grain harvest. Post maintains its corn planted area forecast at 22.5 million hectares for MY 2022/2023 and corn production is forecast at 125.5 MMT for MY 2022/2023, up 8 percent from the estimated 116 MMT for MY 2021/2022.

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Colombia’s economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, restricting a more substantial growth in demand for grains in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Although the United States continues to be the main sourcing option for Colombian importers of corn given trade preferences under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and geographical advantages, increasing competition from Brazilian and Argentinian corn is expected.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.

Corn and wheat production forecasts remain unchanged in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and less planted area, the sorghum production estimate is revised downward from USDA/Official estimate for MY 2021/22.

Wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast slightly lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.