Browse Data and Analysis

Milled rice production for MY 2023/24 is projected at 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) an 11 percent increase from MY 2021/22. Post projects milled rice production for MY 2022/23 at 1.1 MMT, a 3 percent increase from MY 2021/22.

Rice import for MY 2023/24 is forecast to increase by 4 percent as flooding curbs domestic production and increases imports.

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

MY 2023/24 corn production is anticipated to increase roughly 3 percent to 6.1 million metric tons (MT) as more farmers switch to corn production in response to high prices. Post anticipates production will remain below historical levels due to high fertilizer prices and fall army worm outbreaks.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Forecasts of below average rainfall and extended dry spells in most parts of the country by the Ghana Meteorological Agency, looming shortage and soaring global prices of fertilizer, and a further cutback on fertilizer subsidy rate are set to erode the grain production gains of GOG’s Planting for Food and Jobs program.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

MY2022/23 corn production is forecast to decrease by approximately 16 percent to 5.9 million metric tons (MMT) due to drought conditions, fall armyworm infestations, and high fertilizer prices.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

Despite ambitious national targets towards self-sufficiency in rice by 2025, and becoming a regional exporter by 2030, the current campaign in Côte d’Ivoire is one characterized by a production drop and trade slowdown, which has tightened overall supply in the country.