Browse Data and Analysis

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.

South Africa’s grain production is off to a decent start in marketing year 2022/23. Above-average rains over most parts of the summer rainfall production area during November and December enhanced crop plantings and provided conducive growing conditions.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030) identifies sustained and quality agriculture programs to accelerate economic progress and ensure national food security as its national strategy. The development of small and large-scale irrigation infrastructure in the Ethiopian lowlands has recently been given increasing due attention by the GOE - among other contributing factors like improved seed, fertilizer supply, and use of mechanization on the clustered wheat farms.

The sharp upsurge in the cost of farming inputs for corn farmers in South Africa intensified the risk of production in a weather dependent industry, despite record-high commodity prices. As a result, Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. However, South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn under normal weather conditions.

On June 10, 2022, the Government of Kenya issued additional tariff exemptions for new feed ingredients to address rising feed costs. Duty exemptions were granted for genetically engineered Bt. cottonseed cake, distillers’ dried grains with solubles...

Angola’s wheat milling capacity has increased to achieve self-sufficiency with five wheat mills now operating in the country, with milling capacity of up to 1 million metric tons of wheat per year.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

South Africa had an excellent start to the 2021/22 MY, with carry-over soil moisture and widespread rains that led corn producers to start plantings two to four weeks earlier than usual. Excessive rainfall during December to early January caused damage to planted crops in some areas that could impact crop size, although the extent will only become clear over the next few months.