Browse Data and Analysis

While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, production of grains is forecast to increase 30 percent year-over-year on an increase in area planted to spring wheat, durum, and oats, and on the assumption of improved soil moisture conditions resulting in higher yields. However, dry conditions persist in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan and many farmers are behind in their planting schedule, due to unfavorable planting conditions.

EU’s total grain production for MY 2022/23 is anticipated to amount to 286 MMT, down from the 293 MMT registered the previous season. The favorable growing conditions across the EU are not anticipated to counter the reduction expected in area planted to grains.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart by region as of March 10, 2022, shows a normal vegetation index on the Mediterranean coast and a below normal NDVI in the high lands. The Algerian government again increased domestic procurement prices of grains from farmers to encourage production and grain collection.

With improved weather conditions, wheat, barley, and rice production are forecast to increase in MY 2022/23. In contrast, corn production is forecast down as farmers switch to other more profitable crops. Overall grain production in MY 2022/23 will be influenced by rising input costs, which the Turkish government is trying to offset with higher support payments for fertilizer and diesel.

Continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.

FAS Amman (Post) forecasts Jordan’s wheat imports in MY 2022/23 to reach 1.3 million MT driven by fears of war. The Russian war on Ukraine has a direct impact on Jordan, as most of Jordan's wheat and barley come from Black Sea.

The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) projects domestic wheat production at 700,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/2022, up approximately 17 percent from USDA’s official estimate of 600,000 MT. Experts anticipate local domestic wheat production could reach 1 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/2023 to offset expected import delays from Russia and Ukraine as a result of the ongoing war.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) in market year (MY) 2022/23, a 2 percent increase from Post’s MY 2021/22 figure. In MY 2021/22, U.S. wheat accounted for 8.2 percent of the market, up 55 percent from the previous year.

FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.