Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Bangkok revised its forecasts for MY2022/23 rice production higher to 20.2 million metric tons due to abundant water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices for off-season rice production. Thai rice exports in 2022 were higher than expected at 7...

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.

Brazil is set for another record-breaking grain harvest. Post maintains its corn planted area forecast at 22.5 million hectares for MY 2022/2023 and corn production is forecast at 125.5 MMT for MY 2022/2023, up 8 percent from the estimated 116 MMT for MY 2021/2022.

Turkey’s production of wheat, corn, barley and rice in MY 2022/23 are all forecast higher compared to the previous year.

Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the northeast.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post’s rice harvested area and production forecasts increased slightly to 11.55 million hectares and 35.85 million metric tons (MT), respectively, on a good Aman season harvest.

Planting of India’s rabi season (winter sown, spring harvested) crops, which includes wheat, is progressing well under adequate soil moisture conditions and irrigation water availability. Market year (MY) 2022/2023 rice production is estimated higher...

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

The forecasts for MY2022/23 rice and corn production remain unchanged from the previous forecasts, as well as corn and wheat import demand.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.