Browse Data and Analysis

Post increases the MY 21/22 estimate for milled rice production to 12.5 million MT on positive first-quarter production data while holding imports unchanged.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised MY2021/22 rice production down slightly to 20.8 million metric tons due to flood damage in the northeastern regions. Post expects Thai rice exports to increase to 5.8 million metric tons in 2021. Post forecasts MY2021/22...

Post forecasts MY2021/22 rice production to increase to 21 million metric tons despite flooding. Posts expects Thai rice exports to increase to 5.8 million metric tons in 2021.

This report is an October 2021 update to the FAS Seoul Grain and Feed Annual released on March 31 and the Grain and Feed Update from June 27.

FAS China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 million metric tons (MMT) while its estimate for corn imports in MY 2020/21 is raised to 30 MMT.

Post maintains its estimate for marketing year 2020/2021 (MY20/21) corn consumption at 14.5 million metric tons (MMT), but revised MY21/22 corn consumption down to 14.35MMT on a lower estimate for feed and residual with anticipation of declining feed demand in the second half of CY2021.

FAS/Manila raises MY 21/22 rice imports by 100,000 metric tons (MT) to 2.2 million MT based on expected improving economic conditions and an upturn in Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearances in July and August 2021.

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2020/21 corn imports will be 15.5 million tons, down 2.4 percent from the previous year due to high global corn prices.

Wheat imports for 2020/21 are revised downward to 9.5 million tons from the previous estimate of 10.0 million tons, reflecting lower inclusion rates in feed rations.

Post’s MY2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 MMT, 6 MMTs below USDA’s official forecast with the expectation that demand softens as corn imported during the current marketing year enters commercial channels, stock building moderates, and the expansion of domestic corn area results in greater production.

While COVID-19 and African Swine Fever continue to constrain Philippine feed demand, corn and rice posted strong production in the third quarter of MY20/21 and are both set for record high output.

Post forecasts MY 2021/22 production, demand, and trade for rice, corn, and wheat.