Browse Data and Analysis

Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the northeast.

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

The forecasts for MY2022/23 rice and corn production remain unchanged from the previous forecasts, as well as corn and wheat import demand.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

High production costs, price instability and lingering disease threats discouraged livestock production which has kept overall 2022 feed demand flat compared to the previous year. Due to high corn prices as well as flat feed demand, Post revises its marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn consumption down to 13.80 million metric tons (MMT) and imports down to 9.20 MMT.

Post forecasts China's MY2022/23 feed and residual to decrease one percent from MY2021/22. Corn production for MY2022/23 is forecast at 270 MMT, 4 MMT lower than USDA’s official forecast and 2.5 MMT lower than MY2021/22 due to lower planting area and yield losses caused by excessive rains in the northeast.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).

Wheat imports for 2021/22 are revised upward to 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 11.0 MMT, reflecting recovering demand for flour-based foods. In line with increased imports, food, seed, and industry (FSI) wheat consumption is also revised up 2.2 percent to 9.1 MMT of wheat equivalent.

Executive Order #171, Series of 2022, modifies market access for MFN tariffs on corn and rice through December 31, 2021, necessitating changes to Post’s corn and wheat balance sheets but not rice.

Post expects MY2022/23 rice production to recover from MY2021/22 due to available water supply and abundant precipitation. MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 feed wheat imports could benefit from the temporary removal of restrictive import measures from May 10 to July 31, 2022.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY 2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import policies.