Browse Data and Analysis

The volume of U.S. fresh, dried, and processed fruit exports between 2012/13 and 2021/22 dropped 29 percent to 2.9 million metric tons[1]. However, a 25-percent gain in unit value during this period softened the decrease in value to just 11 percent lower as trade dropped $700 million to $6.0 billion.

With ideal conditions for high productivity and a nearly year-round harvest, Peru's blueberry production continues to rise. FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian blueberry production for marketing year (MY) 2022 (March-April) to reach a record 280,000 metric tons (MT), with exports expected to reach 270,000 MT. In the last ten years, Peru has built a blueberry industry from 80 hectares in 2012 to about 17,500 hectares currently in production.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts fresh lemon production to decrease to 1.77 million metric tons (MMT) due to unfavorable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to decrease to 800,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to decrease to 380,000 MT due to heavy hailstorms in July 2022 in northeastern Argentina, which caused fruit loss and may have damaged trees.

For Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts fresh deciduous fruit production to rebound to 535,000 MT for apples and 700,000 MT for pears due to favorable weather conditions.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 550,000 metric tons (MT), with exports expected to reach 200,000 MT for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (March 2023 to February 2024). Lower profitability driven by labor cost increases, fertilizer scarcity, erratic weather, increased transportation costs, and container shortages will negatively impact production and exports.

Total citrus production in Mexico across oranges, lemons/limes, and grapefruit is expected to decline in market year (MY) 2022/23 due to challenges such as damage to trees from increasingly severe weather conditions over multiple seasons, particularly in Northeastern producing states, and the rising costs of inputs and logistics for producers that is pressuring yields downward.

Blueberry area planted went from around 7,000 hectares (ha) in marketing year (MY) 2010/11 to over 18,000 ha in MY 2021/22. The United States is the top market for Chilean fresh and frozen blueberries, receiving more than half of the Chilean export volume.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 405 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx), equal to 16.52 million metric tons (MMT), a reduction of two percent relative to the current season.

FAS/San José anticipates Costa Rican orange production to rise to 305,000 metric tons in marketing year 2022/23, despite challenging growing conditions, as effective citrus greening management and increased density tree patterns drive yields higher.

In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, citrus yields decreased due to frost during the winter in the Valparaíso, Metropolitana, and O’Higgins regions. FAS Santiago estimates lemon production to decrease by 30 percent to 140,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/22 and to bounce back to 200,000 metric tons in MY 2022/23, assuming normal yields.

Canadian apple production is forecast to grow four percent for market year (MY) 2022/23, as production rebounds in Ontario and Quebec following adverse growing conditions in MY 2021/22. Pear production is forecast to grow on a bumper crop in Ontario, especially of the Bartlett variety.

Overall, Mexico’s market year (MY) 2022/23 deciduous fruit production is projected to remain steady year-to-year, with apple production increasing marginally by 1 percent, but from what is estimated to be a small MY 2021/22 crop.