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Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast

Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast

FAS and the Economic Research Service jointly publish the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. The agricultural export forecast is updated February, May, August, and November.
Effective April 18, 2022, Taiwan temporarily modified its restrictions on imports of poultry and poultry products from the United States and Canada impacted by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The modification allows imports of poultry and poultry products from banned U.S. states if the date of slaughter is 14 days or more before the applicable HPAI ban began.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have already led to the culling of 15 million poultry birds in France (approximately 5 percent of the total poultry flock). Dozens of new cases are being discovered every day. The new variant of the HPAI H5N1 virus appears to be highly transmissible and is spreading rapidly through reproductive flocks of broilers, ducks and egg laying hens.
Since October 2021, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature, and Food Quality has reported 37 findings of avian influenza at commercial poultry farms in the Netherlands. One of the most recent findings is in the municipality of Barneveld, which is considered the poultry capital of the Netherlands. Both the global Covid-19 crisis and local avian influenza outbreaks have had a negative effect on Dutch exports.
Data Product

2021 Agricultural Export Yearbook

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.
In 2016, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and the Philippine Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Animal Industry (DA-BAI) agreed on a county-based format for managing trade restrictions due to detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the United States.
Since the beginning of 2022, Taiwan’s table egg prices continue to set new price records. The egg wholesale market closed at an all-time high price of 80NTD ($2.81USD) per kilogram on March 15. The primary contributors to the recent spike in table egg prices are lower placement of laying hens resulted from high feed prices, culling of birds contaminated by avian influenza, and lower seasonal production cycle.
The Government of Nicaragua will open an additional 1,533 metric tons of duty-free access for imported chicken meat to alleviate price pressures in the domestic market.
On February 25, 2022, the Indian government reported outbreaks of the highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAI) of the serotype H5N1 to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).
The Third Edition of the Philippine Department of Agriculture's Avian Influenza Protection Program (AIPP) Manual of Procedure was finalized in 2020.
South Africa has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties against bone-in chicken meat imports from Brazil and four European Union countries. With this announcement, South Africa is now imposing anti-dumping duties against all nine countries that have regularly exported bone-in chicken portions to this market.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Trade and Integration announced the first stage of 2022 meat and poultry quotas by HS code for historic suppliers (i.e., importers). The first stage approved the distribution of 2,835 tons of beef and 31,500 tons of poultry.