Post forecasts Burmese rice exports lower in June due to reduced supplies in the domestic market and higher domestic prices. The Burmese government continues making changes to its trade and foreign exchange rate policies that are impeding trade.
Thailand doubled its target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in COP26. The Thai government has yet to finalize the new biofuel consumption targets. Biofuel consumption in 2021 and 2022 is still far below current targets due to the prolonged outbreak of COVID-19 and the slow economic recovery after the pandemic caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Post expects MY2022/23 rice production to recover from MY2021/22 due to available water supply and abundant precipitation. MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 feed wheat imports could benefit from the temporary removal of restrictive import measures from May 10 to July 31, 2022.
Burma’s aquaculture production and export in MY 2021/22 will remain flat as COVID-19 restrictions and the military coup continue to dampen the economy. Post anticipates lower U.S. soybean meal (SBM) and distiller’s dried grain with solubles (DDGS) exports to Burma in MY 2021/22 in line with slower aquaculture development and changes in foreign currency controls.
Post forecast Burmese rice exports lower in May due to slow business activities along with changing trade and exchange rate policies and high domestic prices. Domestic prices for Emata increased in May due to high transportation costs and a smaller domestic supply as exporters fulfilled advanced sale contracts. Domestic prices for Shwe Bo Pawsan remained unchanged.