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Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast

Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast

FAS and the Economic Research Service jointly publish the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. The agricultural export forecast is updated February, May, August, and November.
Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030) identifies sustained and quality agriculture programs to accelerate economic progress and ensure national food security as its national strategy. The development of small and large-scale irrigation infrastructure in the Ethiopian lowlands has recently been given increasing due attention by the GOE - among other contributing factors like improved seed, fertilizer supply, and use of mechanization on the clustered wheat farms.
Interactive Tableau visualization showing the growth in exports of several key bulk agricultural commodities since 1989.
On June 30, Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 815,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat in a tender from four countries – France, Romania, Russia, and Bulgaria.
On May 17, the Government of Iraq (GOI) announced higher purchase prices for locally-produced wheat in an effort to incentivize farmers to market their crop to the Ministry of Trade. On June 8, the GOI also passed a food security bill that allows the government to use public funds to meet urgent food needs, including issuing tenders to import wheat.
After more than 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, wheat prices have surged almost 60 percent globally, hitting their highest levels in 14 years. Egypt, similar to the rest of the world, has been affected by the impacts of this war, especially since 82 percent of its wheat imports over the last five years originated in Russia and Ukraine.
On June 15, Kazakhstan extended wheat and wheat flour export restrictions until September 30. The restrictions were originally approved on April 14 under the Ministry of Agriculture's decree “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” and set to expire on June 15, 2022.
On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.
On Friday, May 13, 2022, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, effective immediately, citing the sudden spike in global wheat prices and the resulting food security risks to India.
Angola’s wheat milling capacity has increased to achieve self-sufficiency with five wheat mills now operating in the country, with milling capacity of up to 1 million metric tons of wheat per year.
On April 14, the Ministry of Agriculture approved the “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” decree outlining wheat and wheat flour export restrictions valid until June 15, 2022.
Data Product

2021 Agricultural Export Yearbook

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.