Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent).
Post forecasts higher Burmese rice exports in January in anticipation of regular demand from China through official channels, increased broken rice demand from EU countries, and continued demand from the Philippines.
Australia is set for a second consecutive record grain crop following two years of drought. For the winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have reached another record in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 and barley production is expected to be the third largest in history, just slightly behind the previous year.
On November 24, 2021, the Indian government approved the extension of the additional free food grains scheme through March 31, 2022. With this extension, an additional 16 million metric tons (MMT) of grains will be released from government stocks.
Given the pace of imports during the first six months of 2021/22, the wheat import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 2 million tons. With harvest complete and better than expected yields, the 2021/22 rice production estimate is increased from 8.2 to a record 8.9 million tons.
Post revised Vietnam’s marketing year 2020/2021 (MY20/21) total harvest area down to 7,305 thousand hectares (THA), but production up to 27.38 million metric tons (MMT) (milled rice equivalent) on higher production of the autumn crop.
Mexico’s wheat production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is revised upward, based on more complete figures from Mexico's Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), and reflecting favorable weather conditions that resulted in higher yields than initially expected.