Browse Data and Analysis

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

In 2021, Nigeria is expected to face decreases in grain supplies due to conflict and economic factors exacerbated by the secondary effects of COVID-19. Internal security across the country is a serious challenge to food production especially in the corn belt.

Nigeria will rely on imports to meet its national requirements for grains (especially, wheat, corn, rice) in MY2020/21.

FAS Lagos (Post) forecasts Nigeria’s wheat imports in MY 2019/20 at 5.6 MMT, up almost 4 percent compared to MY 2018/19 based on growing food, seed and industrial (FSI) usage.

Nigeria’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2018/19 are forecast at 5.4 million metric tons (MMT), up 4 percent from the MY 2017/18 import figure of 5.2 million metric tons.

Nigeria’s MY2018/19 wheat consumption is projected at 5 million tons, a 5 percent increase over last year’s.

Nigeria’s wheat consumption continues to increase as prices of other major locally grown staples remain higher than those for wheat products.

Post's combined estimates of Nigeria's MY2017/18 production for wheat, rice, corn and sorghum is set at about 16.3 million tons, representing a slight drop from the current MY2016/17 estimate....

MY2016/17 imports of wheat, rice and corn, combined, are estimated at nearly 6.8 million tons. Post’s MY2016/17 wheat consumption estimate is noted at almost 4.2 million tons...

The Central Bank of Nigeria continues to restrict access to foreign exchange in an effort to reduce rapid spending of U.S. dollars outside of Nigeria.