Browse Data and Analysis

During a national oilseeds conference, industry representatives noted that domestic oilseed production increased from 2.5 million hectares in 2020 to 3.4. million hectares in 2022, and they further expect production to reach 5 million hectares by 2027.

On April 13, 2023, the Ministry of Trade and Integration announced the second stage of 2023 meat and poultry quotas by HS code for historic suppliers (i.e., importers).

By early April 2023, many Ukrainian official agencies and private companies published their end-of-the-year results. This report provided valuable insight into wartime macroeconomic and agricultural developments.

FAS Astana estimates wheat production at 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. FAS Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for MY 2023/2024.

The full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022 sent seismic shocks throughout the Ukrainian economy, with agriculture bearing a direct impact. It led to a breakdown of farming operations due to the fighting and shelling on farm lands, while crippling agricultural logistics out of the country, leaving farmers unable to sell their crops at reasonable prices.

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

After a major decrease in 2022, Ukraine’s cattle and swine population is expected to decline further in 2023. Although some war-related factors have already had their negative impact, the refugee crisis, disposable income drops, and a weakened economy are expected to depress livestock sector development further.

Although it initially decreased after the war began, Ukraine’s chicken meat production remained stable in 2022. The production was impacted by significant cost increases predominately associated with more expensive trade logistics and a turbulent macroeconomic environment.

On December 29, 2022, the Ministry of Trade and Integration announced the first stage of 2023 meat and poultry quotas by HS code for historic suppliers (i.e., importers). The first stage approved the distribution of 2,835 tons of beef and 31,500 tons of poultry.

Ukrainian poultry products were approved for export to the Canadian market as Ukrainian and Canadian regulators signed a bilateral veterinary certificate for poultry and processed poultry products in November 2022.

Ukraine is in a full-scale war after Russia invades in February 2022. Imports of agricultural products from the U.S. are expected to drop by almost one-third in 2022. A decrease in consumer purchasing power and a focus on cheaper product tiers pushes U.S. imports into the high-end segment.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.