For MY2022/23, initially good crop prospects after the abundant rains in April were negated by above average temperatures registered in May and June. In-country grain demand remains relatively stable, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector, despite the somewhat lower livestock products exports and the grain prices hike.
After more than 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, wheat prices have surged almost 60 percent globally, hitting their highest levels in 14 years. Egypt, similar to the rest of the world, has been affected by the impacts of this war, especially since 82 percent of its wheat imports over the last five years originated in Russia and Ukraine.
On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.
On May 19, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved two genetically engineered (GE) crops (1 soybean and 1 corn/maize) for food and animal feed. The two authorizations were published in the European Union’s Official Journal on May 20, 2022, and they remain valid for 10 years.
In 2021, Chinese imports of alfalfa pellets hit record levels of 52,254 metric tons (MT) and $13.66 million by value, increases of 62 percent and 70 percent respectively. The market is dominated by Spanish-origin pellets.
While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.
EU’s total grain production for MY 2022/23 is anticipated to amount to 286 MMT, down from the 293 MMT registered the previous season. The favorable growing conditions across the EU are not anticipated to counter the reduction expected in area planted to grains.
With improved weather conditions, wheat, barley, and rice production are forecast to increase in MY 2022/23. In contrast, corn production is forecast down as farmers switch to other more profitable crops. Overall grain production in MY 2022/23 will be influenced by rising input costs, which the Turkish government is trying to offset with higher support payments for fertilizer and diesel.
The prospects for MY2022/23 winter grain crops remain favorable due to the relatively mild winter, sufficient soil moisture reserves, and snow cover. Higher input costs, however, may have a negative impact on the average yields due to expected lower application of inputs.
The Turkish government continues its efforts to rein in inflation, which was made worse in recent months by the steep depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar and drought-related grain production losses in MY 2021/22.
This report contains updated Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 and MY2021/22 production, trade, and consumption estimates for Ukraine. According to the recent national statistical data MY2021/22 production numbers for wheat, barley, corn and rye are higher compared to MY2020/21, thus translating into higher export volumes.