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The full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022 sent seismic shocks throughout the Ukrainian economy, with agriculture bearing a direct impact. It led to a breakdown of farming operations due to the fighting and shelling on farm lands, while crippling agricultural logistics out of the country, leaving farmers unable to sell their crops at reasonable prices.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

After more than 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, wheat prices have surged almost 60 percent globally, hitting their highest levels in 14 years. Egypt, similar to the rest of the world, has been affected by the impacts of this war, especially since 82 percent of its wheat imports over the last five years originated in Russia and Ukraine.

Serbia is closely following the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, especially because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

This report contains updated Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 and MY2021/22 production, trade, and consumption estimates for Ukraine. According to the recent national statistical data MY2021/22 production numbers for wheat, barley, corn and rye are higher compared to MY2020/21, thus translating into higher export volumes.

This report contains updated Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 and MY2021/22 production, trade, and consumption estimates for Ukraine against those discussed in our Annual grain and feed report (UP2021-0017).

This report updates Post’s previous annual report (UP2021-0017) with revised production, trade and consumption estimates/forecast..

The Russian Federation approved a law establishing the Unified State Traceability System for Grain and Grain Products, which will come into force January 2022.

Updates marketing year 2020/21 production and export estimates and corn export forecast previously included in FAS Kyiv’s GAIN Report UP2021-0017.

Post forecasts Russia's grain and feed production for the coming year.

Marketing year (MY) 2020/21 in Ukraine resulted in lower-than-expected production volumes for all major grains (wheat, barley and corn).