Browse Data and Analysis

Turkey’s production of wheat, corn, barley and rice in MY 2022/23 are all forecast higher compared to the previous year.

Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the northeast.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post’s rice harvested area and production forecasts increased slightly to 11.55 million hectares and 35.85 million metric tons (MT), respectively, on a good Aman season harvest.

Planting of India’s rabi season (winter sown, spring harvested) crops, which includes wheat, is progressing well under adequate soil moisture conditions and irrigation water availability. Market year (MY) 2022/2023 rice production is estimated higher...

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

The forecasts for MY2022/23 rice and corn production remain unchanged from the previous forecasts, as well as corn and wheat import demand.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post's forecast for rice harvested area and production remain unchanged at 11.5 million hectares and 35.65 million metric tons (MT), the same as the USDA official forecasts. Post's wheat production forecast in MY 2022/23 also remains unchanged from Post's previous projection.