Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks and higher domestic production. MY 22/23 production is increased to 6 MMT on higher yields in Xinjiang. China’s slowing economy and weak domestic demand reduced cotton use in MY 21/22 to 8 MMT and lowered imports to 1.76 MMT.
A recent industry survey in one of China’s leading provinces for textile and apparel manufacturing highlights the negative impact of the PRC’s zero-tolerance COVID policy in the world’s largest cotton market and area economy. According to survey results, production estimates are down, costs are higher, and deliveries are delayed.
Higher downstream demand for textiles and garments and reduced cotton yarn imports are expected to raise spinning demand for cotton in marketing year (MY) 22/23, lifting cotton imports to an estimated 2.3 million metric tons (MMT).
With the China Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) price surging 58 percent from its August 2020 level to RMB 20,150 (or, approximately U.S. $3,100) per metric ton (MT) on October 8, 2021, the Chinese government (PRC) is taking steps to rein in prices.
Cotton imports are forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22. U.S. cotton exports to China surged to 1.2 MMT in the first 11 months of MY20/21, up from the 0.47 MMT in MY19/20, pushing the U.S. share of China’s cotton imports to 45 percent.