While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.
Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.
Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.
In marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 Post forecasts Uruguay to increase its wheat area somewhat, but production and exports would be marginally lower than in the past two marketing years due lower expected yield.
Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.
FAS Manila forecasts Market Year (MY) 2022/23 milled rice production will reach 12.4 million metric tons (MT), flat with the previous year’s near-record high. The Philippine government’s support programs will help rice farmers partially offset rising input costs.
FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.
Mexico’s corn, wheat, and sorghum production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 are forecast marginally lower than the previous year due to rising input costs, reduced government support, and expected adverse weather conditions from La Nina.
Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent).
Mexico’s wheat production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is revised upward, based on more complete figures from Mexico's Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), and reflecting favorable weather conditions that resulted in higher yields than initially expected.