Browse Data and Analysis

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart by region as of March 10, 2022, shows a normal vegetation index on the Mediterranean coast and a below normal NDVI in the high lands. The Algerian government again increased domestic procurement prices of grains from farmers to encourage production and grain collection.

With improved weather conditions, wheat, barley, and rice production are forecast to increase in MY 2022/23. In contrast, corn production is forecast down as farmers switch to other more profitable crops. Overall grain production in MY 2022/23 will be influenced by rising input costs, which the Turkish government is trying to offset with higher support payments for fertilizer and diesel.

Continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.

FAS Amman (Post) forecasts Jordan’s wheat imports in MY 2022/23 to reach 1.3 million MT driven by fears of war. The Russian war on Ukraine has a direct impact on Jordan, as most of Jordan's wheat and barley come from Black Sea.

The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) projects domestic wheat production at 700,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/2022, up approximately 17 percent from USDA’s official estimate of 600,000 MT. Experts anticipate local domestic wheat production could reach 1 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/2023 to offset expected import delays from Russia and Ukraine as a result of the ongoing war.

The prospects for MY2022/23 winter grain crops remain favorable due to the relatively mild winter, sufficient soil moisture reserves, and snow cover. Higher input costs, however, may have a negative impact on the average yields due to expected lower application of inputs.

The Turkish government continues its efforts to rein in inflation, which was made worse in recent months by the steep depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar and drought-related grain production losses in MY 2021/22.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent).

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021-2022 is forecast at a record 20 million tons, and exports are projected at 13.5 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent), both unchanged from USDA’s official numbers.

FAS China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 million metric tons (MMT) while its estimate for corn imports in MY 2020/21 is raised to 30 MMT.

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2020/21 corn imports will be 15.5 million tons, down 2.4 percent from the previous year due to high global corn prices.