Mexico Corn Production Recovering from Two Years of Drought
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For the current marketing year (MY) 2025/26, USDA forecasts Mexico corn production at 26.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 12 percent from 23.2 mmt MY 2024/25 and 10 percent above MY 2023/24. Corn production is reliant upon the seasonal increase in rain that typically begins in June. However, in MY 2023/24, a drought began that negatively impacted Mexico’s corn production (see Figure 1). The ongoing drought affected MY 2024/25 as well, while the intensity of the drought shifted to the northwest, the primary winter corn producing region. With the onset of the rainy season in June 2025 and above-average rainfall in key producing regions, corn production for MY 2025/26 is recovering from two years of drought.
Before the long-term drought began, corn production for Mexico had a 5-year average of 27.3 mmt (MY 2018/19 to MY 2022/23). Harvested area in MY 2023/24 dropped to 6.1 million hectares (mha) and USDA estimates MY 2024/25 at 6.5 mha and forecasts MY 2025/26 at 6.8 mha (see Figure 2).