India: Coffee Annual

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 coffee production (October-September) at 5.8 million 60-kilogram bags. Deficit pre-monsoon rains (March-May) are expected to impact yields negatively as fruit setting drops significantly, especially for the arabica variety in the major growing regions. Farm gate prices have risen since the beginning of this marketing year due to the anticipation of lower-than-expected supplies. Post forecasts exports to rise by two percent to 6.3 million 60-kilogram bags thanks to strong export prospects. India's domestic consumption is forecast to decline marginally to 1.285 million 60-kilogram bags as a result of rising input costs including that of raw coffee beans. Carryover stocks will remain limited due to higher export volume.