Argentina: Wheat Production Declines

Argentine wheat production in 2001/02 is estimated at 15.7 million tons, down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last month and down 5 percent from last season. Harvested area is estimated at 6.8 million hectares, a slight increase from last month, and up 6 percent from last season. Wheat yields are forecast below average at 2.31 tons per hectare. 

 Lower than expected yields in the key producing areas of southern Buenos Aires Province resulted in less production. Although southern Buenos Aires Province wheat yields were higher than average, they were not high enough to offset losses in northern Buenos Aires Province. During wheat flowering, more than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain fell on central Argentina’s main growing area resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. Approximately 15 percent of the nation’s wheat area is in the area that was most affected by the rains. This area is northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and northeastern La Pampa Provinces. Wheat yields have been reported lower than last year for this area.

 South Africa: Corn Area and Yield Revised Down 

 South Africa’s 2001/02 corn crop is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month, but up 13 percent from last year. Estimated corn area for 2001/02 was reduced by 3 percent this month, to 3.4 million hectares based on data from South Africa’s National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC).  The estimated yield of 2.5 tons per hectare is higher than last year and above the 5-year average

 According to the January NCEC report, commercial farmers planted an estimated 2.88 million hectares of corn in 2001/02, down 58,000 hectares from the previous NCEC planting intentions estimate in November, but up 170,000 hectares from last year.  No official estimate is available for corn area in the developing agricultural sector, which totaled 515,000 hectares in 2000/01. Several factors encouraged South African farmers to expand corn area in 2001/02, including high domestic corn prices, low stock levels, strong export demand, and favorable weather at the start of the 2001/02 planting season, which began in October 2001.  However, unusually heavy rainfall in November caused localized flooding and lengthy planting delays in western and southern crop areas, forcing some farmers to abandon planned acreage or switch to alternative crops such as sunflowers. 

 The current weather is generally favorable for the 2001/02 corn crop, which is now in the vegetative to reproductive growth stage.  Recent moderate to heavy showers improved moisture conditions for reproductive crops in the eastern corn belt, which had been trending drier than normal for a few weeks.  Meanwhile, late-planted vegetative corn in Free State and North West benefited from drier weather during the first week of February.  Near-normal temperatures (highs from 25 to 30 degrees C) created good conditions for pollination, which usually occurs from mid-January to mid-February.  According to satellite imagery and local reports, the crop appears to be growing well, with few signs of heat stress, insect damage, or disease. 

Australia:  Wheat Production Forecast Rises

 The 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 23.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year.  Estimated area is 12.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year.  Preliminary harvest information indicates larger crops in South Australia and Western Australia than earlier forecast. The Australia winter growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat areas.  However, the minimal rains were timely and proved sufficient for supporting crop growth and averting the earlier anticipated sharp yield declines in drought-affected Western Australia.  South Australia conditions were excellent and yields could achieve a record high.

 Australia: Barley Production Forecast Increased

 The 2001/02 barley crop is forecast at 7.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year.  Estimated area is unchanged at 3.7 million hectares, similar to last year.  Preliminary harvest information indicates potentially record crop size in South Australia and better than expected output in drought affected Western Australia.  Historically, South Australia produces approximately 40 percent of Australia’s barley.             

 Philippines: Copra Prospects Lifted by Favorable Precipitation

 Copra production in 2001/02 is up 19 percent from the previous forecast of 2.1 million tons, to 2.5 million, equal to last year’s output.  Previous estimates forecast a year-to-year decline after two years of good production; however, favorable precipitation has helped boost production prospects.  The Philippines tends to receive below average rainfall during an El Niño weather pattern, and above average rainfall during La Niña, but conditions are currently neutral.  Around half of the total area planted to coconut trees in the Philippines is located on the southern island of Mindanao.  The Philippines is the world’s largest producer of copra (which is used to make coconut oil) accounting for almost 44 percent of world output in 2000/01.