Wheat Production Declines
wheat production in 2001/02 is estimated at 15.7 million tons, down 0.8
million or 5 percent from last month and down 5 percent from last season.
Harvested area is estimated at 6.8 million hectares, a slight increase from
last month, and up 6 percent from last season. Wheat yields are forecast
below average at 2.31 tons per hectare.
than expected yields in the key producing areas of southern Buenos Aires
Province resulted in less production. Although southern Buenos Aires
Province wheat yields were higher than average, they were not high enough to
offset losses in northern Buenos Aires Province. During wheat flowering,
more than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain fell on central Argentina’s main
growing area resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils.
Approximately 15 percent of the nation’s wheat area is in the area that
was most affected by the rains. This area is northwestern Buenos Aires,
southern Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and northeastern La Pampa Provinces.
Wheat yields have been reported lower than last year for this area.
Africa: Corn Area and Yield Revised Down
Africa’s 2001/02 corn crop is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 0.5
million or 6 percent from last month, but up 13 percent from last year.
Estimated corn area for 2001/02 was reduced by 3 percent this month, to 3.4
million hectares based on data from South Africa’s National Crop Estimates
Committee (NCEC). The estimated
yield of 2.5 tons per hectare is higher than last year and above the 5-year
to the January NCEC report, commercial farmers planted an estimated 2.88
million hectares of corn in 2001/02, down 58,000 hectares from the previous
NCEC planting intentions estimate in November, but up 170,000 hectares from
last year. No official estimate is available for corn area in the
developing agricultural sector, which totaled 515,000 hectares in 2000/01.
Several factors encouraged South African farmers to expand corn area in
2001/02, including high domestic corn prices, low stock levels, strong
export demand, and favorable weather at the start of the 2001/02 planting
season, which began in October 2001. However,
unusually heavy rainfall in November caused localized flooding and lengthy
planting delays in western and southern crop areas, forcing some farmers to
abandon planned acreage or switch to alternative crops such as sunflowers.
current weather is generally favorable for the 2001/02 corn crop, which is
now in the vegetative to reproductive growth stage.
Recent moderate to heavy showers improved moisture conditions for
reproductive crops in the eastern corn belt, which had been trending drier
than normal for a few weeks. Meanwhile,
late-planted vegetative corn in Free State and North West benefited from
drier weather during the first week of February.
Near-normal temperatures (highs from 25 to 30 degrees C) created good
conditions for pollination, which usually occurs from mid-January to
mid-February. According to satellite imagery and local reports, the crop
appears to be growing well, with few signs of heat stress, insect damage, or
Wheat Production Forecast Rises
2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 23.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 7
percent from last month, but down 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year.
Estimated area is 12.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month,
but down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year.
Preliminary harvest information indicates larger crops in South
Australia and Western Australia than earlier forecast. The Australia winter
growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat
areas. However, the minimal
rains were timely and proved sufficient for supporting crop growth and
averting the earlier anticipated sharp yield declines in drought-affected
Western Australia. South
Australia conditions were excellent and yields could achieve a record high.
Barley Production Forecast Increased
2001/02 barley crop is forecast at 7.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 4
percent from last month and up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year.
Estimated area is unchanged at 3.7 million hectares, similar to last
year. Preliminary harvest
information indicates potentially record crop size in South Australia and
better than expected output in drought affected Western Australia.
Historically, South Australia produces approximately 40 percent of
Copra Prospects Lifted by Favorable Precipitation
Copra production in 2001/02 is up 19 percent from the previous forecast of 2.1 million tons, to 2.5 million, equal to last year’s output. Previous estimates forecast a year-to-year decline after two years of good production; however, favorable precipitation has helped boost production prospects. The Philippines tends to receive below average rainfall during an El Niño weather pattern, and above average rainfall during La Niña, but conditions are currently neutral. Around half of the total area planted to coconut trees in the Philippines is located on the southern island of Mindanao. The Philippines is the world’s largest producer of copra (which is used to make coconut oil) accounting for almost 44 percent of world output in 2000/01.
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