December 2001

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Argentina: Corn Production to Decrease Due to Lower Area and Yield

Argentine corn production in 2001/02 is forecast at 12.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 11 percent from last month and down 19 percent from last season. Harvested area is forecast at 2.3 million hectares, down 0.15 million from last month and down 16 percent from last season. Yield is forecast slightly above average at 5.43 tons/hectare. In October, heavy rains in central Argentina delayed corn planting in key corn-growing areas. More than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain fell on central Argentina’s main growing area since September 15, resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. In November, the rains continued with some open days for fieldwork to progress. Corn planting is estimated at 72 percent complete as of November 30, the slowest pace in the last five years according to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture (SAGPyA). Planting began in late September and the majority of corn is planted in late October and early November, and is complete by the middle of December.

Zimbabwe: Corn Production Expected to Decline

Zimbabwe corn production for 2001/02 is estimated at 1.3 million tons, down 0.3 million or 19 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year’s poor crop. Planted area is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, down 2 percent from last year. The reduction occurred in the large-scale commercial farm sector, which accounts for about 6 percent of total planted area, but 25 to 30 percent of total production. Economic and political instability has prevented many large-scale farmers from planting 2001/02 summer crops, including corn and tobacco. In the small-scale farming sector, planted area for 2001/02 is expected to be similar to last year, but yields could decline because producers may be unable to afford fertilizer, which has more than doubled in price since last year. Planting for the 2001/02 crop started last month and should be complete by the end of December. Although the summer rainy season was delayed by 2 to 4 weeks, normal to above-normal rainfall in November has created favorable moisture conditions for planting and germination. Harvesting will take place in May/June 2002.

Canada: Wheat Production Lowest Since 1988

Canadian wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 21.3 million tons, up 0.6 million or 3 percent from last month, but down 5.5 million or 21 percent from last year. Wheat area, at 11.0 million hectares, is unchanged from last month and up slightly from last year. The decline in production was caused by low spring and durum wheat yields in Western Canada, resulting from extremely dry growing conditions. The spring wheat yield of 2.0 tons per hectare and the durum yield of 1.5 tons were well below the five-year averages of 2.35 and 2.15 tons per hectare for spring and durum wheat, respectively. Overall, wheat yield was 1.94 tons per hectare compared to 2.37 tons for the five-year average. Wheat production in 2001/02 was the lowest since 15.9 million tons in 1988/89.

Russia: Preliminary Harvest Data Indicate Bumper Wheat Crop

Russian wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 45.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 2 percent from last month and up 11.1 million or 32 percent from last year. Estimated yield and production are the highest in almost ten years. Barley production is estimated at 19.5 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 5.4 million or 38 percent from last year. Rye production is estimated at 7.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 8 percent from last month and up 1.6 million or 28 percent from last year. Oat production is estimated at 7.0 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 1.0 million or 17 percent from last year. Corn production is estimated at 0.8 million tons, unchanged from last month, but down 0.8 million or 48 percent from last year. According to harvest results released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Russian farms harvested more than 91 million tons of grain this year (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying), and total net output is forecast to surpass 83 million. The 2001/02 grain crop benefited from generally favorable weather in almost all growing regions, although corn output was negatively affected by excessive summer heat.

India: Corn Output Estimate to Fall

The 2001/02 corn crop is forecast at 11.3 million tons, down 0.7 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 6.4 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.15 million or 2 percent from last year. The current forecast represents the combined production from the Rabi and Kharif seasons. The U.S. agricultural attache completed field travel and reported lower production in the major producing states of Kanataka and Andhra Pradesh. Adverse weather is responsible for this season’s decline. India’s poultry industry is the largest user of corn. The industry may be negatively affected by higher corn prices caused by the short fall of corn and low poultry prices due to over production.

Pakistan: Rice Output Forecast to Fall

The 2001/02 rice crop is estimated at 4.1 million tons on a milled basis. This is down 0.4 million tons from last month and down 0.6 million or 13 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, down 0.25 million or 11 percent from last month and down 0.35 million hectares or 15 percent from last year. The decline in production is mostly a result of water availability problems at planting time. Early-season irrigation problems and better returns from competing crops, primary cotton, reduced the Punjab planted area this season. Farmers in the Sindh are reported to have also planted less rice due to the lack of early-season irrigation supplies and prospects of better returns from sugarcane.

Argentina: Soybean Area to Increase as Corn Area Declines

Argentine soybean area in 2001/02 is forecast at a record 11.1 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and up 8 percent from last year’s area of 10.3 million hectares. Soybean production is forecast at 28.8 million tons, up 0.75 million or 3 percent from last month, and up 6 percent from last season’s revised estimate of 27.2 million. Soybean area is expected to increase by 0.1 million hectares as farmers shift away from corn. In October, heavy rains in central Argentina reduced planting intentions for corn and delayed planting. More than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain fell on central Argentina’s main growing area since September 15, 2001, resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. The soils in central Argentina were saturated due to the rains and needed time to dry before planting could occur. In November, the rains continued with some open days for fieldwork to progress. Soybean planting has two advantages over corn planting: planting occurs later in the season than corn planting, and no-till planting can occur on wetter soils. Soybean planting is 48 percent complete as of November 30.

Pakistan: Cotton Forecast Declines

The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 8.0 million bales, down 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares, down slightly from last month, but up 0.2 million hectares or 7 percent from last year. Pakistan cotton production will be reduced this season due to late season pest attacks. Pressure from bollworms in central and eastern Punjab between mid-September and mid-October will result in yield declines resulting in lower production than earlier estimated.

India: Cotton Forecast Decreased

The 2001/02 cotton crop is forecast at 11.8 million bales, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month, but up 0.9 million or 8 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 8.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.6 million or 8 percent from last year. The production estimate has been lowered to 11.8 million bales due to heavy pest damage in Haryana and Gujarat. Above-normal temperatures and a lack of ground moisture are also cited as reasons for the decline in the central states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. The southern crop grown in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu is progressing well. Light December rains could improve prospects for late picking in the rainfed cotton areas of central and southern India.

WEATHER BRIEFS

South Africa: Moisture Levels Favor
Summer Crop Establishment

November is the optimal sowing period for corn and many other summer crops in South Africa, although the planting window extends through December. Spring showers developed in mid-October across the corn belt, providing timely pre-planting moisture for summer crops. In early November, mild temperatures and widespread, locally heavy rain continued across the corn belt, causing minor planting delays but boosting soil moisture supplies. Heavy rain along the coast from eastern sections of Eastern Cape through KwaZulu-Natal caused localized flooding but kept crops well-watered. Drier weather (less than 10 millimeters) and sunny skies developed across northern and eastern sections of the corn belt in mid-November, spurring planting and favoring early summer crop establishment. In the west and south, moderate to heavy rain provided abundant moisture for corn and other summer crops in North West and Free State but hampered fieldwork in a few areas. Toward the end of the month, additional widespread showers in the northern and eastern part of the corn belt slowed fieldwork but helped to build long-term moisture reserves. Favorably drier weather returned in early December, while abundant rain and mild temperatures supported summer crop establishment across North West, Free State, Lesotho, and Eastern Cape.

Argentina: Summer Crop Planting and Wheat Quality Are Affected By Wet Weather

From mid-September through November 2001, rainfall was much above normal across central Argentina. Excessive wetness and flooded fields have delayed corn and sunflower planting and greatly increased wheat disease. In mid- November, somewhat drier weather eased excessive wetness for winter crops development and summer crop planting. However, by late November, moderate to heavy showers maintained adequate to excessive soil moisture for summer crop planting and reproductive and filling winter wheat across Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and Santa Fe. The abundant moisture continued to slow corn and sunflower planting and prolonged concerns for wheat quality, especially in Buenos Aires. That week, La Pampa and Cordoba received less than 10 millimeters, favoring corn and sunflower planting and winter wheat development. During the week of November 25 through December 1, mostly dry weather in central Argentina favored filling to maturing winter wheat and summer crop planting, except in western Cordoba, where a drying trend created a lack of topsoil moisture for germination. The only significant rain occurred in southeastern Buenos Aires, favoring reproductive to filling winter wheat. According to the Argentine Agricultural Secretariat as of November 30, nationwide corn, sorghum, sunflowers, and soybeans were 72, 65, 73, and 48 percent planted, respectively, compared with 79, 58, 87, and 50 percent last year. In Buenos Aires, corn was 74 percent planted compared with 96 percent last year.

Brazil: Widespread Rainfall Provides
Optimum Growing Conditions

During November 2001, near- to above-normal rainfall across the majority of Brazil’s summer crop regions increased soil moisture and encouraged rapid early growth of corn and soybean crops. The primary cropping regions of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul all received timely and bountiful showers. As a result, planting progress is well advanced with the majority of the summer crops successfully sown by early December. Near-ideal growing conditions exist for early establishment of 2001/02 summer crops of soybeans, corn, rice, black beans, coffee, sugar, and oranges.

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