September 2001

2001/02 PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Wheat output in 2001/02 is forecast at 20.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 11.2 million hectares, down 0.6 million or 5 percent from last month but up 0.9 million or 7 percent from last year. Below average rainfall and low soil moisture in Queensland and Western Australia have resulted in a lower planted area and reduced yield prospects. Conversely, growing season conditions in New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria are generally favorable.

Russia: Harvest Reports Indicate Highest Grain Yield in Recent Years

Russian wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 41.5 million tons, up 3.0 million or 8 percent from last month and up 7.1 million or 20 percent from last year. Barley production is estimated at 16.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 10 percent from last month and up 1.9 million or 13 percent from last year. Rye production is estimated at 6.5 million tons, up 0.8 million or 14 percent from last month and up 1.1 million or 19 percent from last year. The increases are based on harvest reports indicating continued high yields in European Russia. The grain harvest is roughly 60 percent complete and is now underway in the Urals and Western Siberia, where most of the country’s spring wheat is grown. Estimated corn production was reduced for the second consecutive month following high temperatures and persistent dryness in southern Russia. Output is estimated at 0.8 million tons, down 0.2 million or 20 percent from last month and down 0.8 million or 48 percent from last year.

Ukraine: Excessive Heat Slashes Corn Yields

Ukrainian corn production for 2001/02 is estimated at 2.0 million tons, down 0.8 million or 29 percent from last month and down 1.9 million or 48 percent from last year’s bumper crop. July and August were marked by excessively high temperatures and persistent dryness in southern and eastern Ukraine, the country’s key corn region. However, Ukrainian wheat production is estimated at 20.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month and up 9.8 million or 96 percent from last year. Barley production is estimated at 8.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 23 percent from last month and up 1.1 million or 16 percent from last year. With wheat harvest essentially complete, the Ministry of Agriculture announced output at 21.4 million tons, prior to cleaning and drying.

Turkey: Wheat Production Cut

Turkey’s 2001/02 wheat production is estimated at 15 million tons, down 1.0 million or 6 percent from last month and down 2.5 million or 14 percent from last year. This marks the second-lowest production level in a dozen years. Dry and warm weather conditions during the winter and spring months in Central Anatolia, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Turkey’s wheat production. Account for the reduction. The lack of rainfall also reduced wheat quality. Other regions, such as Adana and Antakya, also reported lower wheat harvests from last year. The exception is in Southeast Anatolia, where wheat production increased due to good rainfall and low pest infestation.

Canada: Wheat, Barley, and Corn Production Forecasts Fall

Canadian 2001/02 wheat production is estimated at 21.5 million tons, down 1.0 million tons or 4 percent from last month and 5.3 million or 20 percent from last year. The barley crop dropped 0.8 million tons this month to 11.5 million, down 2.0 million or 15 percent from last year. Wheat and barley yields are forecast at well below-average levels due to continued deterioration of crops during August and September across wide portions of southern and central Alberta and Saskatchewan. Season-long drought and high temperatures significantly reduced yield potential in the spring wheat, durum, and barley crops, triggering both early maturation and harvest across Canada. In the severely affected areas, farmers were reportedly forced to abandon roughly 600,000 hectares of wheat and 350,000 hectares of barley. Drought-related abandonment, therefore, effectively negated the entire 800,000 hectare increase in wheat and barley acreage that Canadian growers planted this season. The 2001/02 corn crop (grown mostly in Ontario) was also affected by dryness and high temperatures during tasseling. Corn production is currently estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 11 percent from last month, but up 1.7 million or 25 percent from last year. Corn area increased roughly 13 percent in 2001/02 to an estimated 1.23 million hectares, but below-average yields are forecast.

China: Lowest Rice Crop in Seven Years Forecast

China’s 2001/02 rice production is estimated at 128.1 million tons (183.0 million rough basis), down 2.1 million or nearly 2 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. This is the smallest rice crop in China since 1994/95. Estimated area for 2001/02 is 29.2 million hectares, down 3 percent from last year and the lowest area on record. Relatively low prices and diminished government support for rice production have discouraged planting in recent years. The estimated yield of 6.27 tons per hectare is similar to last year and slightly below the 5-year average. Additionally, weather this season has been less than ideal. Drought delayed planting and germination in northern China, and rice in parts of central China and Sichuan were affected by drought this summer. Excessive rainfall along the coast of southern China may have also caused lower yields.

Australia: Sorghum Production Forecast Surges

Sorghum output in 2001/02 is forecast at 2.0 million tons, up 0.4 million or 25 percent from last month and up 0.45 million or 29 percent from last year. Estimated area is 0.75 million hectares, up 0.15 million or 25 percent from last month and up 0.16 million or 27 percent from last year. Favorable soil moisture levels in New South Wales and improved feed prices are expected to increase sorghum planting this season. In Queensland, large areas not planted to winter grain earlier in the year are prime candidates for spring-planted sorghum.

India: Rice Forecast Rises Slightly

The 2001/02 rice crop is forecast at 88.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 1.7 million or 2 percent from last year. Forecast area is unchanged at 44.5 million hectares, but down 0.1 million from last year. Of the total production estimate, 76 million tons comes from the already-harvested kharif season, and 12 million is expected to be harvested during the summer season. In the major producing states of Punjab and Haryana, conditions are excellent in this mostly irrigated region. Prospects are satisfactory in the two largest summer rice growing states, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Localized flooding in areas of Orissa and Bihar is not expected to significantly reduce output. However, the continuation of monsoonal rains during September and early October are essential for longer season varieties grown in Bihar, West Bengal, and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Ukrainian sunflowerseed production for 2001/02 is estimated at 2.3 million tons, down 0.5 million or 18 percent from last month and down 1.2 million or 34 percent from last year. The sunflower crop fell victim to persistently unfavorable weather this season. Early-season establishment was hampered by excessive wetness and below-normal temperatures. Beginning in July and continuing through August the weather was hot and dry, and the crop advanced through flowering stage under stress.

Russian sunflowerseed production for 2001/02 is estimated at 2.7 million tons, down 0.5 million or 16 percent from last month and down 1.2 million or 31 percent from last year. Sunflowers were subject to excessive heat and persistent dryness during July and August, much the same as in Ukraine.

Canadian soybean output for 2001/02 is forecast at 2.3 million tons, down 500,000 from last month’s estimate and down from 2.7 million last year. Excessive heat and very little rain in July and early August drastically reduced yield potential of soybeans, stressing the crop during flowering. Eighty-six percent of the crop is grown in southern Ontario and was affected by the hot,dry weather. Insect infestations have also been a factor in reducing yield potential. The soybean crop is normally harvested from September to November.

Cotton output in 2001/02 is forecast at 3.2 million bales, down 0.2 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.3 million or 9 percent from last year. Estimated area is 0.450 million hectares, down 0.05 million or 10 percent from last month and last year. Prospects for reduced irrigation supplies in Queensland and low world cotton prices are expected to result in less area planted to cotton this season. Given the outlook for improved returns with sorghum and sunflowerseed, producers will likely shift away from cotton to those crops. Cotton planting operations usually commence in mid-September in central Queensland and progress southward as soil temperatures rise.

Generally favorable weather in August improved yield prospects for China’s 2001/02 cotton crop. Production is currently estimated at 23.0 million bales, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 13 percent from last year. The estimated yield of 1,043 kilograms per hectare is above average, and second only to last year’s record yield. Planted area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 20 percent from a year ago and the highest since 1995. High domestic cotton prices in the 2000/01 season encouraged farmers to expand cotton area for 2001/02, especially on the North China Plain, where persistent bollworm infestations had depressed plantings in the 1990's. Unusually dry weather in May and June reportedly delayed planting and emergence on the North China Plain, but widespread rainfall in July and August boosted moisture supplies for cotton development. Central China was unusually dry this summer, but the impact on cotton was not expected to be serious. Conditions in southern Xinjiang, China’s largest cotton producer, were favorable, more than offsetting the potential impact of cool and wet weather in northern Xinjiang.

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