September 2001
Production Prospects for Major
Wheat
Exporters Dwindle
A combination of drought and wet weather in key
wheat exporting countries has resulted in a near 10-percent
reduction in prospective 2001/02 wheat output from the initial
May 2001 estimate. Of the major non-US exporting countries, only
in Argentina have prospects for wheat production risen. The
combined harvest (148 million tons) of Argentina, Australia,
Canada, and the EU is forecast at the lowest level since
1995/96.
As a result of the dry and hot weather in August and September
across a wide swath of wheat area in southern and central Alberta
and Saskatchewan, Canada's wheat yields are expected to be well
below average. Additionally, in severely affected areas as much
as 600,000 hectares of wheat may be abandoned. In Australia,
below average rainfall and low soil moisture in Queensland and
Western Australia have resulted in lower planted area, as well as
reducing yield prospects. Conversely, in the EU widespread
showers in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Spain damaged
maturing winter wheat. Excessive rainfall delayed, and in some
cases prevented spring wheat and durum planting.