September 2001

Production Prospects for Major Wheat
Exporters Dwindle

A combination of drought and wet weather in key wheat exporting countries has resulted in a near 10-percent reduction in prospective 2001/02 wheat output from the initial May 2001 estimate. Of the major non-US exporting countries, only in Argentina have prospects for wheat production risen. The combined harvest (148 million tons) of Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU is forecast at the lowest level since 1995/96. 

As a result of the dry and hot weather in August and September across a wide swath of wheat area in southern and central Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada's wheat yields are expected to be well below average. Additionally, in severely affected areas as much as 600,000 hectares of wheat may be abandoned. In Australia, below average rainfall and low soil moisture in Queensland and Western Australia have resulted in lower planted area, as well as reducing yield prospects. Conversely, in the EU widespread showers in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Spain damaged maturing winter wheat. Excessive rainfall delayed, and in some cases prevented spring wheat and durum planting. 

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