July 2001

2001/02 PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Down

Australian wheat production in 2001/02 is projected at 21.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but up 0.3 million or 2 percent from last year. Forecast area is 11.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent last month, and down 0.3 million or 2 percent from last year. Below average rainfall in May and low soil moisture across several southern areas delayed winter wheat planting past the optimal dates. However, prices at the time encouraged producers to continue planting operations past the prime season. Since the beginning of June, rainfall accumulations have improved for most areas, except Queensland and Western Australia. Dry conditions have persisted in Western Australia, lowering area and slowing emergence and establishment.

Pakistan: Wheat Output Estimated Higher

Pakistan’s 2001/02 wheat harvest is estimated at 19.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Area is estimated at 8.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month. Production of 19.0 million tons is the second largest wheat crop produced in Pakistan, exceeded only by the 2000/01 harvest of 21.1 million tons. Higher wheat yields in the last two seasons are a result of more timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage, and nearly ideal weather. Over 80 percent of Pakistan's wheat is irrigated.

Brazil: Exceptional Safrinha Crop Boosts Total Corn Output To Record

Brazil’s 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 40.0 million tons, up 8.4 million or 26 percent last year. Harvested area is estimated at 14.0 million hectares, up 1.5 million from last year. The first or main corn crop (February-June harvest) which typically accounts for about 80-85 percent of total production is forecast at a record 35.0 million tons. Favorable prices at planting time for the Safrinha or second crop (June-September harvest), encouraged farmers to increase planting, resulting in projections of a near-record 5.0 million ton crop. A freeze during late June lowered yield expectations in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul. However, crop conditions elsewhere in the Center-West region remained very favorable. Record total corn yields of 2.86 tons per hectare are estimated due to the beneficial weather and increased usage of inputs to the main and Safrinha crops.

Brazil: Increased Area Boosts Wheat Prospects

Brazil, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, is forecast to produce 2.6 million tons during the 2001/02 season, up 400,000 tons or 18 percent from last month. Harvested area is estimated at 1.50 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month. Wheat yield is estimated at 1.73 million tons per hectare, up 57 percent from last year’s drought and frost-damaged crop. In southern Brazil, an incidence of frost was reported in late June in parts of eastern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. However, there are no reports of any significant damage to the wheat crop.

Canada: Rapeseed Area Down on Low Prices and High Input Costs

Canadian rapeseed output for 2001/02 is estimated at 5.8 million tons, down 1.3 million or 19 percent from last year. Yield is projected at 1.45 tons per hectare, equal to the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 4.0 million hectares, down 0.8 million from last year. Area fell this year as low prices coupled with high input costs when farmers were making planting decisions encouraged a shift to small grains. Unprofitable margins for canola crushers and near-record stocks made an unattractive picture for rapeseed before the planting season began. In April, Statistics Canada’s low estimate of 3.8 million hectares raised concerns about supplies for 2001/02, and rapeseed prices began to recover. Consequently, somewhat more planting occurred than had been anticipated.

Weather so far during the crop season has been mixed. A dry winter and spring allowed for early planting in all but the eastern growing areas. Favorable rains in late May and June have helped the rapeseed crop in much of Alberta and northern Saskatchewan. In contrast, dry June weather across southern Alberta up into central Saskatchewan hampered crop development. Excessive rains in Manitoba delayed, but did not prevent, planting. Saskatchewan produces 48 percent Canada’s rapeseed crop, while Alberta produces 30 percent and Manitoba produces 21 percent.

Ukraine and Russia: Republics to See Lower Sunflowerseed Production

Sunflowerseed production in Russia for 2001/02 is estimated at 3.2 million tons, down 0.7 million or 18 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.9 million hectares, down approximately 0.5 million or 10 percent from last year. Two major factors contributed to the lower planted area: decreased profitability of sunflowerseed, due in part to the high cost of production, and reduced frequency of sunflowers in crop rotations in an effort to reduce soil-borne disease. Unfavorable weather during the planting season, especially in the key North Caucasus region, also contributed to the reduced sown area and hampered early crop development.

In Ukraine, sunflowerseed production for 2001/02 is estimated at 2.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 29 percent from last year. The lower production is attributed chiefly to a 20-percent reduction in sown area, from last year’s record 2.8 million hectares to an estimated 2.2 million this year. The reduced area stems from the same factors that influenced sown area in Russia: decreased profitability, rotational constraints, and unfavorable planting weather. A resolution lowering the export duty on sunflowerseed from 23 to 17 percent was approved too late to have an impact on the planting of the 2001/02 crop. May and June were excessively wet in Ukraine’s main sunflower region, and estimated yield is down approximately 10 percent from last year.

China: Lower Soybean Area and Production

China’s 2001/02 soybean crop is estimated at 15.0 million tons, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year, due to lower planted area. High domestic corn prices encouraged farmers to switch from soybeans to corn, especially in Heilongjiang, China’s largest soybean province. The projected yield of 1.72 tons per hectare is below the 5-year average but higher than last year’s drought-impacted crop.

Planting conditions for early-sown soybeans were less than ideal. Pre-season soil moisture was adequate, but unusually warm and dry weather in April and May caused germination delays and poor crop development in parts of the Northeast and North China Plain (NCP). The drought also may have hindered the planting and germination of late soybeans on the NCP, which were sown in June after the winter wheat harvest. The crop situation has improved since mid-June, when widespread rainfall and near-normal temperatures brought significant drought relief to eastern North China Plain and southern parts of the Northeast. However, more rain is needed to reduce moisture deficits and boost yield prospects in central Heilongjiang and the southern plains, where conditions are still unfavorably dry. Soybeans in central and southern China are developing normally.

India: Break in Monsoon Slows Kharif Peanut Crop

India’s 2001/02 total peanut production is forecast at 7.8 million tons, up 37 percent form last year’s crop. Harvested area is forecast at 8.2 million hectares, up 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.95 tons per hectare, up 36 percent from last year. After a timely arrival in June, the southwest monsoon rains have become somewhat erratic over Gujarat, northern Karnataka, interior Maharashtra, and coastal Andhra Pradesh, stressing crops. The states of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu together account for about 90 percent of India’s peanut production. Two crops of peanut are cultivated. The main (Kharif) peanut crop is planted during Mid-May to July and harvested during September to December. The secondary (Rabi) crop is planted during Mid-September to November, and harvested during March-April.

China: Cotton Area and Production Forecast to Rise

China’s cotton production in 2001/02 is forecast to reach 22.0 million bales (4.8 million tons), up 1.7 million bales or 8 percent from last year due to higher expected area. According to an official Chinese government planting survey, cotton area increased by 15 percent to an estimated 4.6 million hectares, the largest area in 5 years. High cotton prices for the 2000/01 crop encouraged farmers to expand cotton area in 2001/02, especially in the North China Plain where area had declined in recent years. The forecast yield of 1041 kilograms per hectare is lower than last year but higher than the 5-year average. Drought conditions from April through early-June caused planting delays and germination/emergence problems in some parts of the North China Plain, particularly in Henan province. Since mid-June, scattered showers have increased moisture supplies and improved crop prospects. The weather remains mostly dry and hot across parts of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, putting additional stress on emerging cotton in these provinces. The crop in central China has benefitted from near-normal rainfall this season, and there have been no weather problems reported in Xinjiang province, where more than 30 percent of China’s cotton is grown.

2000/01 PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Mexico: Sorghum Production Forecasts Lowered

Mexico’s 2000/01 sorghum production is estimated at 5.7 million tons, down 0.31 million tons, or 5 percent from last month. Area is estimated down 0.1 from last month at 1.83 million hectares, or 5 percent from last month. The changes reflect the impact of heat and dry conditions during the blooming and grain-filling stages upon the sorghum fields of Tamaulipas. The mostly non-irrigated fields are planted in February/April and harvested May/July. The fall/winter sorghum crop generates 30-42 percent of Mexico’s annual sorghum production, while as much as 75 percent of the fall/winter sorghum crop comes from the state of Tamaulipas.

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