June 2001

2001/02 PRODUCTION BRIEFS

China: Wheat Yields Hurt By Drought

The production forecast for 2001/02 wheat in China was lowered to 96.0 million tons, down 8 million or 8 percent from last month and down 4 percent from last year’s downward-revised crop. The projected yield of 3.76 tons per hectare is lower than the 5-year average and reflects the impact of an extensive drought in Northern China this spring. Estimated area is 25.5 million hectares, down 0.5 million this month and 6 percent below last year. Wheat area in China has dropped for 4 consecutive years and is now at the lowest level in more than 20 years.

Conditions were favorable for most of the growing season. Planting conditions last fall were favorable and winter precipitation was above normal. Also, scattered showers and mild temperatures in early spring benefitted the emerging winter wheat crop. Warm and dry weather in March and April depleted surface soil moisture, but subsurface moisture was adequate for normal development. Timely rainfall in late April boosted winter wheat yield prospects, and planting conditions for spring wheat in the Northeast were fair to good. However, growing conditions deteriorated sharply in May, when the worst drought in 20 years developed across northern China, stressing filling/maturing winter wheat and emerging spring wheat. The winter wheat harvest started in late-May in the southern plains and is progressing rapidly. Continued dry weather at this stage would assist harvesting and limit post-season crop losses.

Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decreased

Australia 2001/02 wheat production is forecast at 23 million tons, down 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month but up 1.8 million or 9 percent from last year. Projected area is 12.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month, and down 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Below average rainfall and low soil moisture profiles across several areas of southern Australia have delayed planting of the winter wheat crop. However, strong prices are likely to encourage producers to plant later than the optimal dates, once adequate sowing rains are received. Reports at the end of May show several regions were affected by the delayed start of the season. Since then, rainfall amounts of 10mm to 50mm have fallen in many of these regions, although additional rain is needed. Rising livestock prices have boosted area devoted to pasture this season.

China: Drought Drives Corn Yield Potential Down

China’s 2001/02 corn output is projected at 115.0 million tons, down 10.0 million or 8 percent from last month, but up 8 percent from last year’s poor crop. Dry and hot weather from April through early June had a negative impact on corn planting, germination, and emergence in Northern China. The forecast yield of 4.69 tons per hectare is lower than the 5-year average but higher than the drought-impacted crops of 2000/01 and 1997/98. Forecast area is unchanged this month at 24.5 million hectares. Planting conditions were less than ideal on the North China Plain and southern Manchuria, which experienced one of the hottest and driest springs in decades. Soil moisture was depleted, and corn planting and germination was reportedly delayed by several weeks due to a lack of rainfall. Serious losses of emerging crops were reported in Liaoning and Jilin provinces. Growing conditions to date have been more favorable in Heilongjiang and most of central and southern China, where rainfall this spring was closer to normal. Although the crop has experienced stress in the early part of the growing season, yield prospects could at least stabilize if China receives seasonable rainfall from mid-June through August.

Eastern Europe: Wheat Output Increased with Recent Rains

Total wheat production in Eastern Europe in 2001/02 is forecast up from last month as a result of improved weather in the Balkans and a slight increase in projected planted area. Specifically, Romania’s 2001/02 wheat production is forecast at 5.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, and 0.6 million over last year’s drought-reduced harvest. Area was adjusted upward 13 percent from last month and also from last season to 1.7 million hectares. Romania’s barley production is projected up 0.15 million tons from last month to 0.8 million, a 0.5 million increase from last season’s dismal crop. Further south, Bulgaria’s 2001/02 wheat production is now forecast at 3.0 million tons, up 0.35 million from last month and from last season. During April and May, a significant increase in precipitation improved prospects for the region that has been in a prolonged drought. Yugoslavia’s 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 4.5 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month and 1.0 million from last year. Yugoslavia has enjoyed the highest precipitation totals in the southern Balkans during the 2001/02 crop season. April and May continued to bring beneficial weather to the country as significant rains provided ample moisture.

Morocco: 2001/02 Winter Grains Adjusted Upward Due to Large Crop in North

The Moroccan wheat crop is estimated at 3.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up1.6 million from last year’s drought ravaged crop. Although drought has struck Morocco for the third straight season, this year’s effects were concentrated exclusively on the southern and central regions. During the crop season, storms skirted along the Mediterranean Coast, providing timely, abundant rainfall to northern areas but failing to penetrate further inland and south. The northern provinces should produce a regional bumper crop but as a whole however, Morocco is estimated to produce a wheat crop just below the five-year average of 3.2 million tons. Barley production is estimated at 1.0 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month and 0.5 million from last year’s record low level. Barley, concentrated in the marginal lands that typically lie further inland and further south, has been hit especially hard. The 2001/02 barley estimate of 1.0 million tons is 0.8 million below the five-year average.

Turkey: Wheat Production Forecast Decreased

Turkey’s wheat production for 2001/02 is projected at 16.0 million tons, down 1 million or 6 percent from last month. Area is unchanged from last month, but lower yields are expected due to warm and dry weather. The Central Anatolia region is the main wheat-growing area, accounting for about 40 percent of the country’s wheat production.  The combination of low precipitation and warm winter temperatures in this region is expected to reduce wheat yields on a national basis.  In contrast, the Thrace region, which produces about 10 percent of wheat, received above normal rainfall, and is expected to have above normal yields.

Ukraine: Grains Prospects Up on Higher Area and Yield

Total grain production is forecast at 31.2 million tons, up 3.5 million or 13 percent from last month and up 7.5 million or 32 percent from last year. Wheat production is forecast at 19.0 million, up 3.0 million or 19 percent from last month and up 8.8 million or 86 percent from last year’s weather reduced crop. The increase in wheat production is the result of several factors: a 35-percent jump in winter wheat area, driven by high wheat prices last fall and low winterkill; favorable weather throughout the growing season; and a modest increase in the amount of fertilizer and herbicide application. Barley production is forecast at 6.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 8 percent from last month but down 0.4 million or 6 percent from last year due to a year-to-year reduction in area from 3.7 to 3.3 million hectares. Corn production is forecast at 2.8 million tons, unchanged from last month, but down 1.0 million or 26 percent from last year’s bumper crop.

World: Oilseed Production to Rise in The United States and Foreign Countries

World total oilseed production for 2001/02 is forecast at 319 million tons, up 9.1 million or 3 percent from 2000/01. The U.S. crop is expected to account for most of the change as output here is forecast up 7.0 million tons year-to-year to 92.2 million. Meanwhile, total foreign output is forecast up 2.1 million tons to 226.8 million. Surprisingly strong world demand is utilizing the high level of output from the 2000/01 crop and should encourage southern hemisphere plantings. Favorable government loan rates are supporting oilseed plantings in the Unites States despite low commodity prices denominated in U.S. currency. However, unfavorable weather in Canada, China, Australia and parts of Europe are causing concern for the condition of 2001/02 oilseed crops currently being grown.

2000/01 PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Brazil: A Higher Record Crop for Soybeans

Brazil’s soybean production in 2000/01 is forecast at a record 37.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month and 10 percent above last year’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 13.85 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month and about 2 percent from last year’s record area. The soybean yields is estimated at a record 2.71 tons per hectare. Area is adjusted upward based on a revised official estimate from the Brazilian Geographic and Statistics Institute (IBGE). The 2000/01 growing season was characterized by generally favorable growing conditions, with some pockets of dryness in Bahia and Minas Gerais. The favorable weather combined with increased usage of inputs by farmers has contributed to the bumper crop.

China: Peanut, Rapeseed, and Cotton Production Higher Than Expected

China’s peanut, rapeseed, and cotton production estimates for 2000/01 were increased significantly this month based on the latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Peanut production for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 14.4 million tons, up 0.9 million or 7 percent from last month and up 14 percent from the previous year’s bumper crop. Both area and yield reached record levels last year despite dry conditions on the North China Plain during the growing season. China’s 2000/01 rapeseed production estimate was raised to 11.4 million tons, up 3 percent from last month and up 12 percent from 1999/2000 due to record area and very high yields. Farmers in central China and Sichuan have been shifting from winter wheat and early rice into rapeseed , which is more profitable and well suited to the climate. Cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 4.4 million tons (20.3 million bales), up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from the previous year due to record yield. Planted area increased slightly in 2000/01 to 4.0 million hectares but remained well below average. Production has been gradually shifting from eastern China to the western province of Xinjiang, which now accounts for more than 30 percent of China’s total cotton crop.

India: Cotton Production Forecast Decreased

The 2000/01 cotton crop in India is estimated at 10.9 million bales, down 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month and down 1.3 million or 11 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised up slightly to 8.12 million hectares, based on figures released by the Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture. Adverse growing conditions in the western Indian states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra reduced the total output. Rains received during the winter and early spring were insufficient to improve the prospects of the drought-affected area, eliminating the second and third pickings that benefitted the 1999/2000 harvest. Conditions in other cotton producing areas were generally favorable.

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