June 2001
Growing conditions on the North China Plain
deteriorated when the worst spring drought in 20 years developed
across northern China, stressing filling/maturing winter wheat
and germinating/ emerging corn. While continued dry weather would
assist the wheat harvest and limit post-season crop losses, it
would also drive corn yield prospects lower. On the other hand,
corn yield prospects could improve if seasonable rains arrive in
mid-June through August.
As a result of the dry and hot weather from late April through
early June, China's 2001/02 corn output is projected at 115.0
million tons, down 10.0 million or 8 percent from last month, but
still up 8 percent from last year's poor crop. The production
forecast for wheat in 2001/02 was lowered to 96.0 million tons,
down 8 million or 8 percent from last month and down 4 percent
from last year's downward-revised crop.