May 2001

Annual Change in Wheat Production for Key
Exporters' Drops for First Time in Four Years

Total wheat production in the four major exporters competing with the United States is projected to fall for the first time in four years. Despite the low price prospects, the factor most affecting the competitive outlook was the extraordinarily bad weather in western areas of the EU.

In the EU, falling production is largely due to extremely wet conditions across the western part of the region. Excessive rainfall delayed, and in some cases prevented, autumn planting in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain. While winter wheat in the rest of the EU faired relatively well, there were some spring wheat planting delays.

Australia and Canada are expected to plant the same or slightly more area to wheat in 2001/02 than in 2000/01, but more attractive prices for wheat than for other crops are expected to push Argentine plantings to the second highest level on record. Yield prospects for Canada and Argentina are relatively unchanged year-to-year, but output in Australia is anticipated to benefit from a return to more normal growing conditions in 2001/02.

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