April 2001

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Argentina: Soybean Production Forecast Higher, but Sunflowerseed
Production Falls

Argentina’s 2000/01 soybean production is forecast at a record 26.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 23 percent from last season’s record production of 21.2 million. A much larger soybean area than last year and good yields for both single-crop and second-crop account for the record production. Argentina’s 2000/01 sunflowerseed production is estimated at 3.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 13 percent from last month and down 43 percent from last year. A large decrease in area compared to last year accounts for the decrease in production.

Soybean harvested area is forecast at a record 9.85 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.28 million or 15 percent from last season. Soybean yield for 2000/01 is estimated at 2.64 tons per hectare, above the five-year average yield of 2.32 tons but below the record yield of 2.80 tons in 1997/98. Beneficial rains at the beginning and end of February have alleviated concern for the single-crop soybean yield potential. Additionally, the March precipitation improved the outlook for second-crop soybeans. Of the total planted area, 74 percent is single-crop and 26 percent is second-crop soybeans. Sunflowerseed harvested area is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 9 percent from last month and down 43 percent from last year. Sunflower seed area decreased due to better expected profitability from soybeans and corn. Sunflower seed yield is forecast at 1.75 tons per hectare which is similar to the average yield of 1.76 tons.

Brazil: Record Corn Production Forecast Due to Increased Area and Higher Yields

Brazilian 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 39.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month, and up 25 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 14.0 million hectares, up 4 percent from last month. The main corn crop, which typically accounts for about 80-85 percent of the total production, has benefitted from favorable growing conditions, despite some January dryness in western Bahia and Minas Gerais. Field reports by USDA analysts indicate significant year-to-year area increases for both the main and Safrinha corn crops. Record yields of 2.85 tons per hectare are forecast due to increased use of farm inputs (fertilizers, pesticides and improved seeds). The Safrinha crop in the key states of Parana and Mato Grosso benefitted from favorable weather conditions at planting.

Argentina: Corn Production Increased due to Higher Yields

Argentina’s 2000/01 corn production is estimated at 16.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 7.0 percent from last month but down 1.2 million or 7 percent from last year. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.8 million hectares from last month but down 0.3 million or 10 percent from last year. Harvested area declined compared to last year due to the soybean-corn price ratio favoring soybeans at planting time. Higher corn yield accounted for the increase in production with yield estimated at 5.71 tons per hectare, compared to 5.55 tons last year. Harvest is 21 percent complete as of March 30, slower than last year’s rate of 30 percent, as abundant rainfall has slowed harvest.

Brazil: Record Cotton Production Forecast Due to Increased Area and Higher Yields

Brazil’s 2000/01 total cotton production is forecast at a record of 3.9 million bales, up 200,000 bales or 5 percent from last month, and up 26 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 930,000 hectares, up 4 percent from last month. The cotton crop benefitted from favorable growing conditions, despite some January dryness reported in western Bahia and Minas Gerais. Field reports by USDA analysts indicate that farmers are benefitting significantly from the large-scale adoption of high yielding varieties and the implementation of sound cultural practices. The use of farm inputs for this year’s crop has also been very aggressive, particularly in the Center-West states, where production costs are generally lower than in the south.

Indonesia: Corn Production Forecast Decreased

The 2000/01 Indonesian output is forecast at 5.5 million tons, down 0.7 million or 11 percent from last month and from last year. Estimated area is unchanged from last month at 3.0 million hectares. Corn yields were reduced when heavy precipitation occurred during the critical tasseling stage. Poor weather at the start of the season offset the benefits coming from increased hybrid corn seed use in major producing areas, particularly where corn is cultivated for animal feed. Hybrid seed produces up to 10 tons per hectare versus traditional seeds at 2 tons.

India: Cotton Area and Production Revised Downward

India’s 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 11.3 million bales, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year. Estimated area was reduced by 2 percent this month to 8.1 million hectares based on official area data from India’s Ministry of Agriculture. Estimated yield is 304 kilograms per hectare, up from 302 last month. The 7-percent year-to-year drop in production for 2000/01 is supported by updated market arrival data. After a strong start, arrivals have slowed sharply since January, particularly in the drought-affected states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. Arrivals have also slowed in the northern states, indicating a lower crop. However, arrivals have been strong in the southern states and are likely to continue for some months.

Malaysia: Palm Oil Output Estimated Higher

Malaysia palm oil production for 2000/01 (Oct/Sept) is estimated higher this month at 11.9 million tons, up 0.2 million from the March estimate due to the pace of monthly production reported by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Output in January was reported by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board at 1.06 million tons, 294,000 tons higher than January 2000, and February output was reported at 886,000 tons, 173,000 tons above a year earlier. Average rainfall levels above or near normal for the last ten quarters have been favorable for yields, but high rainfall levels above 300 millimeters per month average in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2000 may have been detrimental. Pollination is inhibited under conditions of heavy and frequent rainfall, and this can reduce the harvest 6 months after the heavy rainfall. Additionally, output in the months ahead may be limited by replanting. Satellite imagery of peninsular Malaysia seems to indicate a higher than normal level of clearing of old palm oil stands has occurred in recent months.

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