April 2001
Low prices and poor planting conditions are expected to lead to
significant reductions in wheat planted area, with commensurate
reductions in output in several key producer countries, including
the United States, the EU, India, and Pakistan. China, despite
likely substantial reductions in area, may experience a slight
increase in productiton following favorable winter and spring
conditions to date.
In the EU, extremely wet conditions across the region will severely reduce wheat area, with the United Kingdom, France, and Italy leading the decline. Conversely, dry autumn conditions in the United States southern plains led to reduced plantings. Dry conditions continued through most of October, but moisture conditions since then have greatly improved.
Low prices to producers in India and Pakistan
arising from last years' bumper harvests, along with reduced
government price supports are anticipated to reduce area to
multi-year lows in both countries. Given reported year-to-year
drops in fertilizer use, reduced final output appears
unavoidable.