April 2001

Low prices and poor planting conditions are expected to lead to significant reductions in wheat planted area, with commensurate reductions in output in several key producer countries, including the United States, the EU, India, and Pakistan. China, despite likely substantial reductions in area, may experience a slight increase in productiton following favorable winter and spring conditions to date.

In the EU, extremely wet conditions across the region will severely reduce wheat area, with the United Kingdom, France, and Italy leading the decline. Conversely, dry autumn conditions in the United States southern plains led to reduced plantings. Dry conditions continued through most of October, but moisture conditions since then have greatly improved.

Low prices to producers in India and Pakistan arising from last years' bumper harvests, along with reduced government price supports are anticipated to reduce area to multi-year lows in both countries. Given reported year-to-year drops in fertilizer use, reduced final output appears unavoidable.

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