February 2001

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Argentina: Record Soybean Production Forecast for 2000/01

Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at a record 24.0 million tons, up 2.8 million tons or 13 percent from last year’s record, and up 0.5 million tons from last month. Planting had reached 99 percent as of January 26, 2001, similar to last year’s pace. The 1999/2000 soybean crop was the previous record and is estimated at 21.2 million tons. Soybean yield for 2000/01 is estimated at 2.45 MT/ha, above the five-year average yield of 2.32 MT/ha. Concern for the second-crop establishment–approximately 26 percent of planted area--and recent dryness in western Buenos Aires is counterbalancing good crop prospects in Santa Fe and Cordoba.

Australia: 2000/01 Rice Production Hits Record

Australian rice production for 2000/01 is forecast at a record 1.1 million tons on a milled rice basis. This is an increase of 172,000 tons or 18 percent from last month, resulting from favorable growing conditions. Area is forecast at a record 175,000 hectares, up 16,000 or 10 percent from last month. The area increase is due to the abundance of water supplies after three years of irrigation restrictions in the major growing valleys along the New South Wales and Victoria border. This area has experienced near-perfect growing conditions this season with beneficial above-normal temperatures during January. Near record yields are anticipated for this season’s rice crop.

Australia: 2000/01 Wheat and Barley Production Rises

Australian 2000/01 wheat output is estimated at 20.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month. This is 4.5 million tons or 18 percent lower than last season’s record 25.0 million. Area did not change this month. Compared to last season, area is down 0.3 million hectares, or 3 percent from last year’s record. A significant portion of the 2000/01 crop suffered some weather damage which led many growers to store a larger than normal quantity of grain on farms in hopes for better prices later in the season for the damaged grain. New South Wales and Western Australia are forecast to have greater production than previously estimated. South Australia and Victoria are forecast at near record production. Barley production forecast has been increased from 5.4 to 5.6 million metric tons for the 2000/01 winter grain season with reports of a substantial proportion achieving the top malting grade.

Brazil: Higher Yields Boost 2000/01 Soybean Production to Record Level

Brazilian soybean production is forecast at a record 35.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons or 3 percent from last month and 7 percent above last year’s record crop. Last season’s crop was adjusted upwards by 700,000 tons to 33.2 million tons. Harvested area for 2000/01 increased by 200,000 hectares to 13.6 million hectares. Early harvest results support high yields in the states of Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazil’s largest and second largest producer of soybeans, respectively. Beneficial rains and increased farm inputs throughout the growing season have boosted yield prospects to a record level. Soybean yield is estimated at 2.61 Mt/ha, higher than the previous record of 2.50 Mt/ha in 1997/98.

Brazil: 2000/01 Record Corn Production Anticipated As Yield Prospects Rise

Brazil’s 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 38.5 million tons, up 1.5 million tons or 4 percent from last month, and up 22 percent above last year. Harvested area is at 13.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month. The first corn crop (typically accounting for about 80-85 percent of total production) has benefitted from timely rains throughout the southern growing regions. Further boosting yield potential to a record total yield of 2.85 tons per hectare is the increase in farm input use (fertilizers, pesticides and improved seeds). However, dryness in the northeastern state of Bahia may have impacted corn yields. Safrinha, or second corn crop, prospects are for a smaller crop than normal, but above last year’s frost-damaged crop. Planting begins after the soybean harvest in the southern states of Brazil, typically in late February and March. For the safrinha crop, the state of Parana is the largest producer.

Kazakstan: Statistical Agency Announces Preliminary Wheat Harvest Results

Kazakstan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 9.1 million tons, down 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month and down 2.1 million or 19 percent from last year. The reduction in estimated production is based on preliminary harvest data released by Kazakstan’s national statistical agency. Crop conditions were relatively good this season: yield is estimated at 0.96 tons per hectare, 25 percent below last year’s near-record but nearly 30 percent above the average of the past five years.

India: 2000/01 Cotton Production Forecast Decreased

The 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 11.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or 6 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised down from 8.4 to 8.3 million hectares. The lower 2000/01 cotton estimate is due to adverse weather conditions in the growing regions of western India. High temperatures and low soil moisture reserves precluded additional pickings in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The light rains received during late December and early January were insufficient to improve the prospects for additional pickings. The slowdown in arrivals in drought-affected western states indicate a lower crop than earlier estimated. Furthermore, quality problems have been reported in the western cotton regions concerning fiber strength. Market sources expect arrivals from the central region to taper off by late March compared to the more-normal period of April/May.

South Africa: Lower Corn Area and Yield in 2000/01

South Africa’s 2000/01 corn crop is estimated at 8.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and down 24 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, down 15 percent from last year and the lowest in 60 years. On January 22, the National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC) reported that commercial farmers planted an estimated 2.7 million hectares of corn in 2000/01, down 18 percent from last year. This total included 1.6 million hectares of white corn (59 percent) and 1.1 million hectares of yellow corn (41 percent). Planted area in the non-commercial sector is believed to have fallen by a commensurate amount. Low prices, credit problems, and high production costs encouraged farmers to reduce corn area and/or shift to alternative crops.

Estimated yield was reduced slightly this month to 2.4 MT/Ha, close to the 5-year average but higher than the weather-reduced yields of 1997/98 and 1998/99. The weather was favorably warm and wet for corn germination and development through mid-December. Rainfall diminished in late-December, but soil moisture remained adequate. In mid-January, unseasonably hot and dry weather created stressful conditions for corn approaching the heat-sensitive tasseling stage. The return of scattered showers and milder temperatures toward the end of January eased the threat of drought in the heart of the Maize Triangle, although outlying crop areas remain drier than normal. Additional rainfall and seasonable temperatures are needed in February to prevent further yield reductions.

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