November 2000

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Argentina: Wheat Estimate Up Due to Higher Area and Favorable Weather

Wheat production is estimated at 16.5 million tons, up 1 million tons or 6 percent from last month and from last year. Area is estimated at 6.25 million hectares, up 0.15 million hectares from last month and nearly 0.2 million hectares or 3 percent above last year. Favorable local wheat prices at the time of planting drove area to the highest level in four years. Yield is estimated above average at 2.6 MT/Ha based on favorable October weather and positive reported crop conditions. Timely rainfall followed by periods of dry weather has been very beneficial. Rainfall totals for the month were at normal to above normal levels in much of the wheat-growing region, with some excess moisture reported in a few areas in north and northwest Buenos Aires and in Entre Rios. The only dry area is northern Santa Fe which has missed most of the rains this season but grows less than 1 percent of the wheat crop. In Buenos Aires, the crop is tillering to heading. In the Cordoba and Santa Fe, the crop is in heading to grain-filling stages. Harvest has begun in the far northern minor growing-areas. Most of the wheat will be harvested in December to January. The 1999/2000 wheat production estimate was also revised this month to 15.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 3 percent from last month, based on export and milling data that indicated higher production.

Australia: Dry Weather Reduces Wheat Yield and Production Prospects

The 2000/01 wheat crop is estimated at 20.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month and down 4.1 million or 17 percent from last year's record. Estimated area is unchanged at 11.7 million hectares. Yield reductions are anticipated due to the dry weather which has persisted through October in portions of the grain belt. Western Australia experienced delayed planting rains, followed by several weeks of below normal rainfall. During the month of October, the severity and extent of dryness in Western Australia has dramatically increased. Most of the southeastern Australia grain regions have experienced favorable weather this season; however, Western Australia's dry conditions will significantly impact Australia's total grain production this season.

Brazil: Increased Inputs and Favorable Weather Boost Soybean Crop

Brazil’s 2000/01 soybean crop is forecast at 34.5 million tons, up 3 percent from last month, and 6 percent above last year’s crop. Harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 13.4 million hectares, with a yield of 2.58 MT/Ha. Preliminary reports on planting intentions by Safras & Mercado suggest a year-to-year area decrease in the states of Parana (3.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.2%), and Santa Catarina (2.8%). Offsetting increases in planted area are projected for Bahia (4.8%), Goias (1.4%), Minas Gerais (2.5%), Mato Grosso (2.6%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (1.4%). Reports also indicate farm inputs (fertilizers, lime, and pesticides) are up significantly this year due to increased availability of credit, better prices, and overall attractiveness of the soybean crop due to its easy marketability.

Widespread showers during the first week of November boosted soil moisture supplies in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. Further south, the recent break in the rains helped revive planting operations in Santa Catarina, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Nationally, about 18 percent of the crop was planted by November 3, compared to 14 percent last year.

Romania: Drought Drops Corn Production Further

Corn production in Romania is estimated at 4.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 18 percent from last month and down 57 percent from last year’s 10.5 million ton bumper crop. Area harvested remains unchanged at 2.7 million hectares, the lowest since 1991 (2.6 MHa). This year’s harvest is Romania’s lowest corn crop in USDA’s database, dating back to 1960. The 2000/01 season has been harsh throughout the Balkans, but particularly relentless in Romania, where drought has been most intense and high temperatures have set records throughout the growing season. The drought is Romania’s worst in fifty years, and possibly the most severe in the last century. The moisture deficiency stunted corn growth, while record heat advanced the crop prematurely. Compounding matters, the country lacks a sufficient irrigation system to mitigate the effects of extreme dryness, and money was tight, limiting farmer’s fertilizer and herbicide applications.

Hungary: Corn Production Reduced Because of Drought

The 2000/01 Hungarian corn crop is estimated at 4.5 million tons, down 500,000 or 10 percent from last month, and 36 percent from last year’s bumper crop of 7.0 million tons. Area was reduced by 100,000 hectares from October to 1.1 million, and is 8 percent below last season’s 1.2 MHa. The harvest should now be complete, and it has become obvious that the summer’s extreme heat and dryness has severely diminished the corn crop in Hungary. Additionally, due to heat damage and a hay shortage, a considerable amount of the crop has been cut early and will be used as silage.

Australia: 2000/01 Barley Production Forecast Decreased

The 2000/01 barley crop is estimated at 5.4 million tons, down 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month, but up 0.9 million or 20 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged at 3.0 million hectares. Moderate yield reductions are anticipated due to the dry weather which has persisted through October in portions of the grain belt. The second largest barley producing state, Western Australia, experienced delayed planting rains, followed by several weeks of below normal rainfall. During the month of October the severity and extent of dryness in Western Australia has dramatically increased and will now result in substantial reductions in barley yield.

Ukraine: Corn Crop up as Farms Gather Bumper Output

Ukraine corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 75 percent from last month and up1.8 million or 106 percent from last year. Official harvest reports indicate that both yield and harvested area are up sharply from last year, despite dryness in eastern Ukraine – the country’s prime corn region – during July and August.

Kazakstan: Wheat Harvest Reports Indicate Favorable Harvest Conditions

Kazakstan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 9.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month, but down 1.7 million or 15 percent from last year. Although yield was down 22 percent from the near-record level achieved last year, estimated area increased nearly 9 percent, to 9.5 million hectares. Grain crops benefitted this year from generally favorable weather during the growing season and harvest campaign.

Yugoslavia: Corn Production Down from Past Summer Drought

Total 2000/01 corn production in the former Yugoslavia is estimated at 6.0 million tons, down 500,000 or 8 percent from last month and down 37 percent from a very good 1999/2000 crop of 9.5 million tons. Area is down 100,000 hectares from last month and 14 percent from last season. The production drop is a result of both drought and record heat, which became entrenched over the Balkans during the summer. The 2000/01 estimate of 6.0 million tons is Yugoslavia’s lowest corn production number since the 1960s. The largest corn producers within Yugoslavia are Serbia/Montenegro, Croatia, and Bosnia/Herzegovina. Serbia/Montenegro’s 2000/01 corn production is about 3.6 million tons (6.1 million in 1999), while Croatia’s production is estimated at 1.2 million tons (2.1 million in 1999). Bosnia/Herzegovina’s 2000/01 production should also be significantly reduced from last year’s 1.0 million tons.

Uzbekistan: Cotton Yield Potential Reduced by Drought

Uzbekistan cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 4.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or 8 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or13 percent from last year. Yield potential was reduced this year because of a shortage of irrigation water in some western and northern oblasts. Roughly one-third of the country’s cotton area was significantly affected by drought. Crop conditions elsewhere in the country were generally good throughout the growing season.

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