September 2000

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Romania: Corn Production Falls to 30-Year Low as Drought Continues

Romanian corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 5.5 million tons, down from 7.5 million last month, and down from the five-year average of 10.1 million. Corn production has been reduced as a severe drought accompanied by record high temperatures continued to dominate southeast Europe throughout the summer. Cooler weather and some showers did arrive in July, but were quickly replaced by additional heat and dryness in August. Cooler temperatures and some rainfall have recently entered the region but came too late to benefit the mature summer crop. This year’s drought is probably the harshest that Romania has experienced in the past 50 years, and has reduced corn production to the lowest level in more than thirty years. Temperatures often soared into the upper 30's C, and because of the extreme heat, crops are maturing earlier than normal.

Russia: Harvest Reports Indicate a Larger Wheat Crop

Russia wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 36.5 million tons, up 2.5 million or 7 percent from last month and up 5.5 million or 18 percent from last year. Harvest-progress reports through early September show that yield is up 16 percent from the same time last year. The crop has benefitted from generally favorable weather throughout the country. Higher fertilizer use has been reported and may have contributed to the better yield which is estimated at 1.6 tons per hectare, second highest in 7 years.

Canada: Wheat and Barley Production Forecasts Fall on Reduced Area and Yield

Canada’s 2000/01 wheat production is estimated at 26.0 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Estimated harvested area fell 0.1 million hectares from last month to 10.9 million, but is up 5 percent from last year. The area change reflects the August Statistics Canada report. Statistics Canada reported that low rainfall in the western prairies had a negative impact on wheat yields, especially durum wheat. Estimated wheat yields were very favorable in the eastern provinces of Ontario and Manitoba, but the wheat crop is heavily concentrated in the western provinces. Roughly one-fourth of the crop is grown in Alberta, which has been very negatively affected by the dry growing season. Saskatchewan grows about half the wheat crop and has experienced some dry conditions, especially near its western border with Alberta. Barley production is estimated at 14.0 million tons in 2000/01, down 0.5 million from last month, but up 6 percent from last year. Estimated area has dropped from 4.8 million hectares to 4.7 million, again reflecting the August Statistics Canada report. Much of the lost area came from Alberta. Almost half the barley crop is grown in Alberta, where barley yields have been more negativity affected by dry weather than have wheat yields.

Spring planting conditions were dry across the prairies, causing concern that the crops would not germinate properly. However, a benefit from the dry spring was that farmers could plant early, a key consideration in a climate where the first fall freeze sometimes damages the crops. The spring rains arrived several weeks late but were adequate for most of the prairies. Extreme southern Alberta did not receive enough rain to grow a normal crop, while rainfall in northern Alberta and western Saskatchewan was adequate. Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba received very favorable rain, while Ontario and Quebec received heavy rainfall throughout the season. Unusually cool weather in June and early July delayed crop development. However, by mid-July the prairies warmed to normal temperatures. The warm weather in late July and August speeded crop development and has allowed prairie farmers to harvest slightly ahead of normal. In the second week of September, heavy rain delayed the harvest in parts of the prairies, but this event should not significantly hurt yields.

Brazil: Winter Wheat Production Lower due to Frost in July

Brazil’s wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 1.8 million tons, 22 percent below last month due to a July frost. Wheat output is estimated 28 percent below the 1999/2000 crop of 2.5 million tons. Harvested area is estimated at 1.35 million hectares, up 14 percent from last year. Yield is currently forecast at 1.7 tons per hectare, about 19 percent below last year’s record yield of 2.1 tons. The two key wheat producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul collectively produce more than 90 percent of the wheat crop. Wheat is generally planted during April to mid-June and harvested during September to November. A prolonged drought and a series of freezes adversely affected the wheat crop in the southern state of Parana on the 13th and 14th of July, and again on the 17th and 18th.

Pakistan: Cotton Estimated Higher on Increased Area

Pakistan’s 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 7.7 million bales, up 0.4 million from last month, but down 0.7 million or 8 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.95 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and unchanged from last year. Despite dryer than normal conditions in the cotton areas, the vast majority of the irrigated areas have received sufficient irrigation supplies thus far this season. Harvesting in the Sindh is well underway, while the peak harvesting period in the Punjab will begin in mid-September.

South Africa: Corn Production Falls as Area Drops

South Africa’s 2000/01 corn production is estimated at 9.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last month and down 12 percent from the 1999/2000 bumper crop due to lower estimated area. Planted area for 2000/01 is forecast to drop by 4 percent to 3.7 million hectares, as commercial corn farmers are expected to respond to low prices, high production costs, and excessive stocks by shifting from corn to oilseeds or leaving land fallow. Planting will commence in October following the start of the rainy season and continue through December.

EU-15: Wheat Production Falls Due to Heavy Rains

Total EU-15 wheat production is forecast at 104.2 million tons for 2000/01, down 1 percent from last month, but up 8 percent from last year. Wheat area is up strongly throughout the EU-15 this year due to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy that favored grains over oilseeds. This month’s loss of 0.7 million tons is almost entirely due to lower estimated yields. Estimated production losses in France and the United Kingdom outweighed gains in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Germany’s estimated output increased 0.3 million tons to 21.6 million as the crop was less severely affected by dry conditions in eastern areas than previously thought. Denmark’s estimated crop increased 0.3 million tons to 4.7 million, while Sweden’s estimate increased 0.2 million tons to 2.5 million. Both countries received excellent rainfall and average temperatures during the growing season. France’s estimated harvest fell 1.0 million tons to 37.0 million and the United Kingdom’s estimated harvest dropped 0.5 million tons to 16.5 million. Both countries received excessive rain as their wheat neared harvest time, with the rain ultimately delaying harvest work long enough to adversely affect the crop.

Pakistan: Rice Estimated Lower on Reduced Irrigation Supplies

Pakistan’s 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 4.3 million tons milled basis, down 0.6 million from last month and down 0.9 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.25 million hectares, down 0.15 million from last month and down 0.27 million from last year. Rice area was reduced in the Sindh, as farmers planted less rice this season due to low irrigation supplies at the start of the season, and as they shifted to more sugarcane because relative prices favored sugarcane over rice. Yield is also forecast to decline slightly due to a delayed start of the planting season.

Australia: Barley Estimated Up on Higher Yields

Australia’s 2000/01 barley crop is estimated at 5.9 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month and up 1.4 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, up 0.15 million hectares from last month and up 0.7 million from last year. Growing conditions have been average to good over much of the grain belt; however, conditions in South Australia have been very good with barley yield forecast to be well above average.

Uzbekistan: Drought Reduces Wheat Harvest

Uzbekistan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 13 percent from last month and down 0.1 million or 3 percent from last year. According to Uzbek officials, water shortages caused significant damage to the wheat crop as well as others crops. Wheat production will fall far short of some earlier projections which had been around 4.7 million tons.

Hungary: Corn Production Drops from Effects of Drought

Hungary’s 2000/01 corn production is estimated at 5.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 9 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year’s bumper crop of 7.0 million. The decrease in production comes despite an upward adjustment in harvested area of 0.1 million hectares. Drought conditions occurred in June, with a brief rainy period in July, after which drought returned in August. Above normal temperatures hurt the crop in June and August while temperatures averaged near normal in July. Any additional rainfall that may be received from here on will not benefit yield because of the crop’s level of maturity.

Total Foreign: Oilseed Minor Changes Mostly Lower

Estimated total foreign oilseed production for 2000/01 is down 0.5 million tons to 215.3 million this month, based on declines in a number of countries. India soybeans are down 200,000 tons as various sources indicate lower planted area. A decline in the Australia rapeseed estimate of 200,000 tons is also attributed to lower planted area. Turkey sunflowerseed production is reduced 125,000 tons due to dryness in the principal growing region of Thrace. The Romania sunflowerseed estimate is reduced 100,000 tons while Bulgaria sunflowerseed is reduced 70,000 tons due to extended drought. A 100,000-ton decline in French rapeseed due to excessive rains at harvest is offset by a 100,000 ton increase in French sunflowerseed attributed to favorable growing conditions.

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